Indian-American city councilmember Nithya Raman has seen an 11-percentage-point lead over incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass evaporate, with a new poll showing the two candidates deadlocked at 40 per cent each among likely voters just days before the 3 November election. Raman's path to victory now depends heavily on younger voters — a demographic that backs her overwhelmingly but has been slow to cast ballots.

Poll Shows Dramatic Reversal

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and conducted between 19 and 25 October, placed both Bass and Raman at 40 per cent among likely voters, with 19 per cent still undecided. As recently as September, the same poll had Raman leading Bass by 11 percentage points — making the shift one of the sharpest reversals in this race.

The turnaround is partly attributed to former reality television personality Spencer Pratt's voters gravitating toward Bass. Among those who backed Pratt in the 2 June primary, 41 per cent now favour Bass compared with just 14 per cent for Raman. In the primary itself, Bass received about 34 per cent of the vote and Raman 29 per cent.

Young Voters Favour Raman But Lag on Turnout

Raman's strength with younger voters is pronounced. She commands 69 per cent support among likely voters aged 18 to 29, versus 15 per cent for Bass, and 74 per cent among those aged 30 to 39, against 16 per cent for Bass, according to the Los Angeles Times. However, ballot-return data paint a concerning picture for her campaign.

As of last Wednesday, only 13 per cent of eligible voters aged 18 to 34 had submitted ballots, compared with 47 per cent of those over 65, according to research firm Political Data Intelligence. This turnout gap could prove decisive in a race this tight.

Raman's team has responded with a targeted social media push, including a campaign video modelled on the film 'Mean Girls' that has drawn more than 200,000 views. 'People are sick of establishment politics and want to see a change in the status quo,' Raman campaign spokesperson Liz Garcia told the Times.

Bass Holds Ground, Courts the Same Demographic

Mayor Bass, 73, is not conceding the youth vote. 'I do understand that there is a sector of young people that do not agree with me, and I respect that. I was them,' she told the newspaper. 'I'm not somebody that believes that I go around lecturing young people to tell them the ways to do things. I understand and respect where they're coming from, and we'll be here waiting for them after I win.'

Bass has secured endorsements from billionaire developer Rick Caruso — her 2022 rival — and former mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Raman, meanwhile, has the backing of the Sierra Club, actor Mindy Kaling, and County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath.

What a Raman Win Would Mean

Raman, 45, was born in Kerala and moved to the United States as a child. A victory on 3 November would make her the first Indian-American mayor of Los Angeles and would mark the first defeat of a sitting LA mayor since 2005 — a historically significant outcome in American municipal politics.

With the race effectively tied and a large undecided bloc still in play, the outcome will likely hinge on which campaign succeeds in mobilising its base over the final days.