US President Donald Trump is set to travel to Manila in November 2026 for the 49th ASEAN Summit, before proceeding to Shenzhen, China for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, the White House has confirmed. The visit, spanning 16 to 19 November, is framed as a demonstration of America's commitment to its Southeast Asian allies and a push to advance US economic and national security interests.

Trump's Schedule and Strategic Intent

Trump will participate in the ASEAN Summit in Manila on 16 November, then fly to Shenzhen for APEC, which runs from 17 to 19 November, according to a White House official. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had telegraphed the President's interest as early as July, when he attended ASEAN foreign ministers' meetings in Manila, telling reporters: 'I think he'd like to. I don't know what the schedule looks like.'

The Philippines, which holds the ASEAN chair this year, has declared 16 to 18 November non-working days across Metro Manila to accommodate the summit and its related gatherings, including the East Asia Summit — where both India and the United States hold seats.

Third Trump-Xi Meeting of the Year in Shenzhen

In China, Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in person for the third time this year — following their Beijing meeting in May and Xi's visit to the White House last month. The frequency of high-level contact signals an active, if complex, US-China diplomatic channel even as trade tensions persist.

Modi's Manila Invitation and the India Factor

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has renewed his personal invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the ASEAN-India Summit and the East Asia Summit in Manila. The invitation was extended when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi in September. 'I look forward to receiving Prime Minister Modi in Manila this November,' Marcos said in a statement following that meeting.

Notably, last year Modi attended the ASEAN-India Summit in Kuala Lumpur virtually and sent External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to the East Asia Summit in his place, forgoing an in-person meeting with Trump. A potential Modi-Trump face-to-face in Manila this year would carry outsized diplomatic significance. The two leaders last spoke by telephone on 30 September, a call Modi described as 'productive.'

The Tariff Deadline Looming Over India-US Ties

A Manila meeting, if it materialises, would unfold against a backdrop of strained India-US relations. A critical pressure point arrives on 18 October — the deadline under Section 113 of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 — by which Trump must decide whether to impose duties of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas, a list that includes India.

The law permits the President to waive those duties if he certifies to Congress that doing so is in the US national interest. New Delhi has argued it faces a double standard: the External Affairs Ministry noted in August 2025 that the US 'continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers as well as chemicals.' This comes amid reports that the Trump administration itself has moved to procure Russian diesel.

ASEAN and APEC: What These Forums Cover

ASEAN groups 11 nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Timor-Leste. The East Asia Summit expands that table to eight partner nations, including India, the United States, China, Japan, and Australia. APEC is a forum of 21 Pacific Rim economies; India is not a member and will not participate in the Shenzhen leg of Trump's trip.

With the 18 October tariff deadline and a potential Modi-Trump bilateral on the horizon, the coming weeks will be a significant stress-test of the India-US relationship heading into what could be a pivotal Manila encounter.