Is Apple Set to Overtake Samsung in Global Smartphone Shipments for the First Time in 14 Years?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Apple is projected to achieve a global market share of 19.4% in 2025.
- Samsung's market share is expected to be 18.7%.
- The iPhone 17 series has driven significant sales growth.
- A favorable economic climate supports consumer confidence.
- Replacement cycles are boosting demand for new smartphones.
New Delhi, Nov 26 (NationPress) Apple's smartphone shipments have shown remarkable strength throughout 2025, especially in Q3, as reported by Counterpoint Research on Wednesday. The iPhone maker is projected to achieve a global market share of 19.4% in 2025, positioning Apple as the world's leading smartphone manufacturer for the first time since 2011.
Samsung's shipments are also anticipated to grow by 4.6% year-on-year, reaching a global share of 18.7%. However, the report highlights that the company will lose the top position it has maintained for over a decade.
In Q3 2025, iPhone shipments surpassed expectations, registering a solid 9% year-on-year growth for the quarter. The launch of the iPhone 17 series marked a significant change in Apple's traditional lineup as the new iPhone Air took the place of the Plus model, along with updates to memory configurations and pricing tiers.
Additionally, global smartphone shipments are projected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year in 2025, according to the report.
“The strong market reception for the iPhone 17 series is a significant contributor to the positive shipment forecasts. A crucial factor is the replacement cycle hitting its tipping point, with consumers who bought devices during the COVID-19 surge now ready to upgrade,” stated senior analyst Yang Wang.
Moreover, from 2023 to Q2 2025, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold.
These previous users are likely to consider upgrading to a new iPhone in the near future, creating a substantial demand base that is expected to continue supporting iPhone shipment growth in the upcoming quarters, Wang added.
According to Counterpoint's latest weekly sell-through tracker, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the United States, including the iPhone Air, during the first four weeks post-launch were 12% higher than those of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e.
Additionally, Apple has benefited from lower-than-expected global tariff impacts and a truce in the US-China trade and technology conflict.
This situation has not only aided Apple's supply chain and ongoing efforts to diversify manufacturing locations but also boosted demand in crucial growth regions—emerging markets.
“Strengthening domestic currencies against the US dollar and a positive economic outlook have enhanced consumer confidence. With these structural advantages, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” the report concluded.
Samsung is projected to see a respectable 5% shipment growth in 2025, supported by a robust supply chain that has mitigated much of the tariff impact, it added.