Gold, silver surge up to 3% on weak dollar and Fed policy bets
Synopsis
Gold and silver defied the usual safe-haven logic on 15 June — prices surged up to 3 per cent even as US-Iran peace talks reduced geopolitical risk. The real fuel was a sliding dollar index near 99.5 and growing bets on Fed rate cuts, signalling that monetary policy has replaced geopolitics as the dominant driver for precious metals.
Key Takeaways
MCX Gold (August futures) surged up to 2.19 per cent , touching an intraday high of ₹1,53,829 per 10 grams on 15 June .
MCX Silver (July futures) jumped nearly 3 per cent , trading as high as ₹2,53,345 per kg .
The rally was driven by a weakening US dollar index , hovering near 99.5 , and US Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.
President Donald Trump announced a US-Iran peace deal via Truth Social, with formal signing expected on 19 June .
Brent crude fell about 4 per cent to nearly $83 per barrel ; WTI crude dropped more than 5 per cent to around $80 per barrel after the peace deal announcement.
COMEX gold and silver also traded higher, reflecting global investor interest in precious metals.
Gold and silver prices climbed sharply on Monday, 15 June, with precious metals gaining up to 3 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), driven by a weakening US dollar and shifting investor expectations around US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The rally came even as geopolitical risk eased following a US-Iran peace agreement announced by President Donald Trump.
MCX Gold and Silver Performance
Gold futures (August delivery) on the MCX surged as much as 2.19 per cent, or ₹3,301, to touch an intraday high of ₹1,53,829 per 10 grams around 11:45 am IST. The yellow metal later settled at ₹1,52,774, up ₹2,246 or 1.49 per cent from its previous close, after touching an intraday low of ₹1,52,632.
Silver futures (July delivery) witnessed even stronger buying interest, trading at ₹2,53,345 per kg — up ₹7,159 or nearly 3 per cent. The white metal was last seen at ₹2,51,692, higher by ₹5,500 or 2.24 per cent from the previous close, with an intraday low of ₹2,51,425.
What Drove the Rally
According to commodity market experts, the gap-up opening in MCX gold was primarily aided by weakness in the US dollar, with the dollar index hovering near 99.5 after slipping to a one-week low. Analysts noted that gold continues to maintain a moderately bullish bias, with investor focus rotating from geopolitical developments toward monetary policy signals from the US Federal Reserve.
Notably, the precious metals rally held firm despite the easing of West Asia tensions — a scenario that would typically reduce safe-haven demand. Experts said this decoupling signals that macro factors, particularly dollar weakness and Fed rate-cut expectations, are now the dominant drivers for gold and silver.
US-Iran Peace Deal and Its Market Impact
President Trump announced via Truth Social that the United States and Iran had finalised a peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping chokepoint that handles nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies. The deal is expected to be formally signed on 19 June.
The peace announcement hit crude oil hard. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell more than 5 per cent to around $80 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude declined about 4 per cent to nearly $83 per barrel, as fears of supply disruptions receded.
International Markets and Outlook
In international markets, COMEX gold and silver also traded higher, reflecting continued investor appetite for precious metals. Experts further noted that silver extended its recovery from recent lows, drawing support from gold's strength, with its medium-term outlook described as constructive. The divergence between falling crude and rising gold underscores how monetary policy expectations have overtaken geopolitics as the primary market signal this week.
Point of View
Because the real driver is now the weakening dollar and the market's growing conviction that the Fed will cut rates. For Indian investors, MCX gold at ₹1,53,829 per 10 grams also reflects imported inflation from rupee depreciation, not just global sentiment. The crude-gold divergence on the same day — oil down 5 per cent, gold up over 2 per cent — is the clearest signal yet that these two historically linked commodity complexes are now responding to entirely different macro narratives.
NationPress
3 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold and silver prices rise on 15 June despite easing tensions?
Gold and silver rose because a weakening US dollar — with the dollar index near 99.5 — and expectations of future US Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted investor appetite for precious metals. These macro factors outweighed the reduction in geopolitical risk from the US-Iran peace deal announcement.
What were MCX gold and silver prices on 15 June 2025?
MCX gold (August futures) touched an intraday high of ₹1,53,829 per 10 grams, later trading at ₹1,52,774, up 1.49 per cent. MCX silver (July futures) traded as high as ₹2,53,345 per kg, up nearly 3 per cent from its previous close.
What is the US-Iran peace deal announced by Trump?
President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that the United States and Iran had finalised a peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies. The deal is expected to be formally signed on 19 June.
How did crude oil react to the US-Iran peace deal?
Crude oil prices fell sharply after the peace deal eased fears of supply disruptions. WTI crude dropped more than 5 per cent to around $80 per barrel, while Brent crude fell about 4 per cent to nearly $83 per barrel.
What is the outlook for gold and silver prices?
Analysts say gold maintains a moderately bullish bias as investor focus shifts to US Federal Reserve monetary policy signals. Silver's medium-term outlook is described as constructive, with the metal drawing continued support from gold's strength and recovering from recent lows.
