Washington, April 14 (NationPress) The swift developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have not yet led to noticeable increases in global productivity, despite the technology's potential to significantly enhance economic growth in the near future, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

During a recent press briefing with journalists from India, Japan, the UAE, the Netherlands, and Chile, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the current macroeconomic indicators do not reflect the effects of AI integration.

“Our current evaluation indicates that... we are not yet witnessing productivity improvements at a macro level attributed to AI in the figures we have,” Gourinchas remarked.

He emphasized that while the pace of technological advancement has been remarkable, its extensive application is still limited.

“We are genuinely impressed by the advancements... but we are not yet observing the macroeconomic consequences,” he explained.

Although there are no visible productivity gains thus far, the IMF perceives AI as a considerable opportunity for future expansion.

“Our forecasts... could range from a 0.1 to 0.4” percentage point increase in productivity growth per year, he mentioned, noting that some estimates are even higher.

Nevertheless, Gourinchas warned that this transition could lead to disruptions, particularly in labor markets.

“There are indications that hiring is starting to soften a bit,” especially for entry-level jobs, he noted, suggesting early signs of AI's influence on employment.

While he dismissed the notion of enduring mass unemployment, he stated that the nature of jobs is expected to undergo significant changes.

“We do not foresee that AI... will result in widespread unemployment,” he asserted, adding that “the jobs that remain... will be markedly different.”

He cautioned that the transition period might be uneven. “Old jobs may vanish before new opportunities arise,” he said, underscoring the potential for temporary disruptions in the labor market.

Another major concern raised by the IMF is the risk of financial instability due to excessive investments and inflated valuations in the AI sector.

“There is a possibility that the market has outpaced itself,” Gourinchas commented, highlighting that numerous companies are currently attracting substantial funding in a fiercely competitive market.

“Perhaps there’s capacity for only one or two... while the rest might fail,” he warned, signaling the dangers of over-investment and misallocation of resources.

This situation could lead to a larger financial correction. “There might be a significant... readjustment of valuations,” he noted, drawing comparisons with previous episodes like the dot-com bubble.

If leveraged investments are involved, the risks could extend to the banking sector. “If they’ve borrowed to fund their investments... then banks could face difficulties,” he remarked.

The IMF’s analysis underscores both the transformative possibilities and the inherent risks associated with AI as it becomes increasingly integrated into the global economy.

While technological innovation continues to foster optimism regarding future productivity improvements, the speed of adoption and the equitable distribution of benefits remain uncertain.

Policymakers and businesses are becoming more focused on ensuring that the workforce possesses the necessary skills to adapt to evolving job requirements, while regulators are actively monitoring financial markets for signs of excess.

As AI continues to develop, its long-term economic effects will hinge on how effectively economies navigate both the opportunities and challenges it presents.