India's festive trade is projected to surpass ₹7 lakh crore during the Navratri-to-Diwali 2026 period, reflecting an estimated growth of 15–18 per cent over the previous year, according to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). The projection, announced on 14 October 2026 in New Delhi, is based on feedback gathered from trade associations and markets across states, alongside consumer demand surveys and commercial activity data.

Key Projections and Sector Breakdown

CAIT National Secretary General and Chandni Chowk MP Praveen Khandelwal said festive trade stood at approximately ₹6.05 lakh crore last year — comprising ₹5.40 lakh crore in goods and ₹65,000 crore in services. This year, the services sector alone is expected to clock between ₹80,000 crore and ₹1 lakh crore, registering a growth of 20–25 per cent — the fastest-growing segment within the festive economy.

According to CAIT's preliminary estimates, groceries and FMCG are set to lead the goods segment at 12 per cent of total festive trade, followed by gold, silver and jewellery at 10 per cent. Electronics and electrical goods are projected at 8 per cent, while consumer durables, readymade garments and gift items are each estimated at 7 per cent. Home decor and furniture and furnishings are expected to account for 5 per cent each.

Services and Logistics Drive Growth

The services sector's outsized growth this season is being led by transportation, logistics, e-commerce deliveries, warehousing, hotels, restaurants, tourism, catering, event management and local transportation. This comes amid a broader post-pandemic recovery in experiential spending, where Indian consumers are increasingly allocating budgets toward travel and dining rather than only goods.

Khandelwal also noted that economic activity would be amplified by cultural and religious events — including Ramlila performances, Durga Puja celebrations, Garba and Dandiya events, fairs, exhibitions and community gatherings — each generating ancillary spend across retail and hospitality.

Local Manufacturing and MSMEs at the Centre

CAIT attributed a significant portion of the projected growth to rising consumer preference for locally manufactured products, handicrafts, Indian brands and goods produced by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Khandelwal linked this trend to growing acceptance of the 'Vocal for Local', 'Made in India' and 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' initiatives. Notably, this marks a structural shift from earlier festive seasons dominated by imported goods and large organised retail, toward decentralised, artisan-led consumption.

He urged consumers to prioritise Indian products, saying it would directly benefit traders, artisans, MSMEs, women entrepreneurs, startups and local service providers.

What This Means for India's Economy

The Navratri-to-Diwali window is historically India's most commercially intensive period, often accounting for a disproportionate share of annual retail turnover. A ₹7 lakh crore festive trade figure — if realised — would represent one of the largest single-season commerce outputs in the country's retail history. It also arrives at a time when rural and semi-urban demand, which had lagged urban consumption in previous years, is reportedly showing a recovery, according to CAIT's feedback from trade bodies. The next critical data point will be actual post-season sales numbers, which industry bodies typically release in early November.