Will a Good Monsoon Enhance Farm Production and Control Inflation?
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Synopsis
The IMD's forecast of an above-normal monsoon is set to bolster agricultural output and rural demand, while also helping to control inflation. This Crisil report outlines how favorable rainfall can lead to a positive economic impact, despite potential challenges from adverse weather events.
Key Takeaways
- Above-normal monsoon predicted by IMD.
- Expected boost in agricultural production.
- Rural demand likely to increase.
- Inflation management is anticipated.
- Monitoring of adverse weather events is essential.
New Delhi, May 28 (NationPress) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a monsoon season that is likely to be above-normal, which is anticipated to drive a significant rise in agricultural production and enhance rural demand while aiding in the management of inflation, as outlined in a recent report by Crisil.
The IMD predicts that rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June to September) will reach approximately 106% of the long-term average.
According to the report, should this forecast hold true, marking the second consecutive year of above-normal monsoon, the economy can expect another favorable year for agricultural output, bolstering rural demand and keeping food prices in check.
In fiscal year 2025, the gross value added (GVA) from the agriculture and allied sectors saw a growth of 4.6%, exceeding the decade's average of 4.0%. Concurrently, consumer price inflation (CPI) experienced a notable decrease in the March quarter of 2025, attributed to robust food supplies that mitigated food inflation. This positive trend continued into April, with CPI inflation dropping further to 3.2%. The report suggests that these favorable trends may persist if rainfall aligns with the forecast.
A well-timed and evenly distributed rainfall is crucial for sustainable agricultural growth. The IMD's forecast indicates that June is likely to witness above-normal rainfall across the nation (over 108% of the LPA), reversing the trend of below-normal rainfall observed in the previous three seasons, thus benefitting sowing activities and the replenishment of water resources.
The IMD has indicated that Central India and South Peninsular India are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India is predicted to have normal monsoon conditions. Only Northeast India is projected to encounter below-normal rainfall.
However, the report also emphasizes the necessity of monitoring adverse climatic events such as excessive, deficient, or unseasonal rainfall, heatwaves, cyclones, and floods that may occur during and after the southwest monsoon season. For instance, in fiscal year 2025, sufficient rainfall contributed positively to food grain production and inflation; however, vegetable outputs faced challenges due to unpredictable weather patterns. Approximately 41% of the food inflation in fiscal year 2025 was attributed to escalating vegetable prices that were impacted by adverse climatic events like heatwaves and excessive rainfall in specific regions.
Point of View
I believe that the IMD's optimistic forecast for rainfall holds great significance for our agricultural sector and overall economy. It is vital for us to remain vigilant about potential climate challenges, but the prospect of enhanced production offers a beacon of hope for rural prosperity.
NationPress
08/06/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the IMD's forecast for the monsoon?
The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, estimating it at 106% of the long-term average.
How will the monsoon affect agricultural production?
An above-normal monsoon is expected to lead to an increase in agricultural production, thereby boosting rural demand and controlling inflation.
What are the potential challenges during the monsoon?
Adverse climate events such as excessive rainfall, heatwaves, and floods can pose challenges to agricultural outputs, particularly in the case of vegetables.
What impact did the monsoon have in the past fiscal year?
In fiscal year 2025, adequate rainfall benefited food grain production and led to a reduction in inflation, although vegetable prices rose due to adverse weather.
Which regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall?
Central India and South Peninsular India are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India is forecasted to have normal conditions.
