Could Tianjin Bonhomie Revitalize RIC Amid US Tariff Tensions?

The Russia-India-China (RIC) initiative is founded on the principles articulated by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who envisioned a robust troika. He opposed the United States' dominance in a unipolar world following the Cold War. Notably, Primakov was the first high-ranking leader from the P-5 nuclear states to visit India after the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in May 1998.

Although Russia retains characteristics of a great power, such as a formidable nuclear arsenal and permanent membership on the UN Security Council (UNSC), its standing as a global competitor has waned in the eyes of US officials. The contemporary Russian Federation aims to safeguard and promote its interests internationally, a departure from the former Soviet Union’s ambition to reshape the world in its image.

In June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized the significance of the Special Privileged Strategic Partnership with India and acknowledged Primakov's contribution. He remarked, "The legacy of Yevgeny M. Primakov is well recognized. He initiated the non-bureaucratic 'troika' - RIC (Russia, India, and China). Although we have been on a break—first due to the pandemic and then the escalating border tensions between India and China—we anticipate revitalizing RIC as those tensions ease," Lavrov stated from Moscow.

The RIC grouping has convened at least 18 meetings of its Foreign Ministers and conducted three informal leader-level summits, with the most recent taking place in June 2019 in Saint Petersburg. This coalition represents 19% of the global land area and contributes 33% of global GDP. All three nations are members of BRICS, SCO, and G-20 groupings. They collectively oppose unilateralism and advocate for a multipolar governance model, providing alternative viewpoints on global issues and championing reforms in international institutions. Furthermore, RIC gives voice to the Global South, working to transform a Western-dominated world through South-South cooperation.

At the SCO Summit in Tianjin, these three major powers solidified their strategic partnership, projecting a united front despite existing tensions with the US. Each country has distinct views on vital topics, including the multipolar world order, counter-terrorism, and collaborative efforts. Trust among these nations is likely to strengthen as they pursue mutual interests through pragmatic and flexible policies.

All three are recognized nuclear powers, with Russia and China holding permanent seats on the UNSC. This troika also boasts significant expertise in connectivity and integration projects. As leaders gathered at the Tianjin SCO Summit, President Putin emphasized, "We three friends..." signaling a potential transformation and revitalization of RIC.

The combined population of Russia, India, and China exceeds three billion, nearly 37% of the global population. India has now overtaken China as the world's most populous nation, with projections estimating its share of global GDP to reach 10.0% by 2025 and 11.3% by 2030. The relationship between the US and India has deteriorated significantly due to tariffs of 50% on goods, imposed to penalize India for purchasing Russian oil and military equipment.

Meanwhile, a thaw in Sino-Indian relations, including discussions on border de-escalation after the violent 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, has begun, although underlying territorial disputes persist. This shift could be a tactical maneuver by China to limit India's alignment with the US or a strategic hedge by India against US unpredictability. Nonetheless, this pivot is more likely a tactical rebalancing in line with India's quest for 'strategic autonomy' amidst a tumultuous geopolitical environment.

For RIC to evolve successfully, a reboot of the format will require considerable efforts to foster mutual trust, respect, and sensitivity between China and India, enabling substantial cooperation on both regional and global challenges. They must address a fundamental trust deficit rooted in unresolved border disputes, strategic rivalries, and competing regional interests. Although recent bilateral discussions indicate a willingness to reset relations, lingering historical suspicions continue to limit RIC's potential.

During the Tianjin Summit, Prime Minister Modi conveyed to the Chinese President that both nations are development partners and advocated for enhancing trade and investment amid global tariff uncertainties. PM Modi highlighted the need to tackle the growing bilateral trade deficit of USD $99.2 billion and underscored the importance of maintaining peace and tranquility at the disputed border.

India's participation in RIC will bolster its policy of multi-alignment and enhance its bargaining power with the US. As a 'swing power' within RIC, India must exploit its position to further its interests in the Eurasian heartland, particularly in balancing Beijing's influence. However, this path is riddled with considerable opportunities and profound challenges due to conflicting interests among the three nations.

In summary, RIC should reaffirm and enhance cooperation devoid of conflict in a world characterized by competitive authoritarianism.

The actions of the Trump administration have created confusion and disorder in the international geopolitical landscape, which urgently necessitates attention in areas like energy coordination, climate policy, regional connectivity, and stable supply chains.

(The author is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia and previously served at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal.)