Axis My India Ltd Chairman and Managing Director Pradeep Gupta has revealed that between 60% and 70% of voters in West Bengal refused to answer — or even acknowledge — questions during his firm's exit poll survey, citing a pervasive atmosphere of fear linked to poll violence. The disclosure came on 29 April as exit poll results began emerging after Assembly elections concluded across five states and one Union Territory.

The Bengal Challenge: A Wall of Silence

Speaking to IANS, Gupta described West Bengal as the most difficult terrain for his polling team. "In West Bengal, after the first phase of voting, the team — including myself — observed that while we cannot strictly call it a 'silent' voter, nearly 60 per cent to 70 per cent of people were simply unwilling to speak or even acknowledge questions," he said.

Gupta noted that the reluctance was rooted in fear rather than indifference. "People are scared that if they say anything, something untoward may happen to them. The reason can be attributed to violence during polls in the state," he said. This level of respondent refusal, he indicated, made credible analysis of Bengal's electoral mood exceptionally difficult.

Key Factors Shaping the Multi-State Results

Beyond Bengal, Gupta outlined the broader forces at play across the five states — all of which are non-Hindi speaking and located in South and East India. He identified anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency as the primary variable, alongside the impact of direct cash transfer schemes targeting women, which incumbent governments across several states have aggressively pursued over the past two to three years. "The results will reflect whether the 'trend' still works or not," he said.

In West Bengal, Gupta also flagged the role of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party, led by Humayun Kabir, as a potential spoiler for minority votes, and said it remained to be seen whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could capitalise on any vote-splitting.

Assam: Shifting Alliances and Delimitation Effect

In Assam, Gupta pointed to significant alliance realignments. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now includes both the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodo People's Front (BPF) — the latter a new addition this cycle. Meanwhile, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which had previously contested in alliance with the Indian National Congress, is running independently this time.

Gupta also reminded that Assam underwent delimitation in 2023, adding another layer of uncertainty. "It remains to be seen whether the people there still show faith in the incumbent BJP government and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma," he said.

Kerala, Tamil Nadu: Anti-Incumbency and a New Player

In Kerala, Gupta noted the state's well-established pattern of alternating governments every five years — a trend that did not hold in the last election but could reassert itself now. The Left alliance government, he said, faces "significant anti-incumbency," while the United Democratic Front (UDF) has been out of power for ten years. He also highlighted the BJP's strong showing in Thiruvananthapuram mayoral polls as a potential indicator of improved NDA performance in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, Gupta described TVK leader Vijay as the "third player" — one whose ability to dent rival parties and accumulate his own vote share would be closely watched. Whether Vijay's entry reshapes the traditional two-alliance contest in the state remains one of the election's open questions.

With results expected to test both incumbents and challengers across a diverse set of political landscapes, Gupta's analysis underscores that ground-level data collection — especially in Bengal — may be as contested as the elections themselves.