West Bengal exit polls 2021: BJP slightly ahead, TMC faces 15-year regime test
Synopsis
Most exit polls after West Bengal's two-phase Assembly election give the BJP a narrow edge over Mamata Banerjee's TMC — a result that, if it holds on 2 May, would end 15 years of Trinamool rule. But the surveys are sharply divided, with two polls giving TMC a comfortable majority and one projecting a hung Assembly, making this one of the most unpredictable state verdicts in years.
Key Takeaways
A majority of exit polls project the BJP ahead of the TMC in the West Bengal Assembly election 2021 .
P-MARQ gives BJP 150–175 seats; Janmat gives TMC a commanding 195–205 seats — the widest divergence among surveys.
Praja Polls gives BJP its highest projection at 178–208 seats, while People's Pulse gives TMC 178–189 .
The JV poll is the only survey projecting a potential hung Assembly , with both parties' ranges overlapping.
A majority in the 294-seat Assembly requires 148 seats ; vote counting is scheduled for 2 May 2021 .
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee 's 15-year regime faces its most serious electoral challenge since the TMC came to power.
A majority of exit polls released after the two-phase West Bengal Assembly elections have projected a tight contest between the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with several surveys hinting at the possible end of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's 15-year grip on the state. The results, due on 2 May, will determine whether Bengal swings saffron or hands Banerjee a third consecutive term.
Key Exit Poll Projections
The P-MARQ survey gives the BJP between 150 and 175 seats and the TMC between 118 and 138, with others — including the Congress and the Left Front–All India Secular Front alliance — winning between 2 and 6 seats. P Matrize similarly places the BJP between 146 and 161 seats and the TMC between 125 and 140, with others taking 6 to 10.
Chanakya Strategies projects the BJP at 150 to 160 seats and the TMC at 130 to 140, with others at 6 to 10. Poll Diary puts the BJP between 142 and 171 and the TMC between 99 and 127, with others at 5 to 9. Praja Polls gives the BJP its widest lead — between 178 and 208 seats — against the TMC's 85 to 110.
Surveys Favouring TMC
Not all surveys tilt toward the BJP. People's Pulse projects the TMC ahead with 178 to 189 seats, against the BJP's 96 to 110. The Janmat poll is the most bullish on the ruling party, giving the TMC a comfortable majority of 195 to 205 seats while placing the BJP at just 80 to 90.
One Poll Signals Hung Assembly
The JV exit poll is the sole survey pointing to a potential hung Assembly, projecting the BJP between 138 and 159 seats and the TMC between 131 and 152 — ranges that overlap and leave neither party with a clear majority. In the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, a party needs 148 seats to form a government.
What This Contest Means
The Bengal election has been one of the most fiercely contested state battles in recent memory. The BJP, which won 77 of 294 seats in the 2016 Assembly election and dramatically improved its Lok Sabha performance in 2019, has mounted an aggressive campaign to unseat Banerjee. The TMC, meanwhile, has centred its campaign on Bengali identity, welfare schemes, and resistance to central interference. This comes amid months of high-decibel campaigning, multiple phases of voting, and significant deployment of central forces across the state.
What Happens Next
Exit polls are indicative and have historically diverged from actual results in Bengal, a state known for its complex caste, religious, and regional voting patterns. Counting of votes is scheduled for 2 May 2021, and the final tally will determine whether the state witnesses a historic transfer of power or a Banerjee comeback.
Point of View
Booth-level mobilisation by both parties, and historically high vote-to-seat conversion volatility make it a graveyard for survey models. What is clear is that the BJP has fundamentally reshaped the competitive landscape in a state it barely contested a decade ago. Whether that translates into a majority or a near-miss, the structural shift in Bengal's politics is already irreversible — and that alone is the bigger story behind the numbers.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the West Bengal exit polls 2021 predict?
Most exit polls project the BJP slightly ahead of the TMC, with several surveys giving the BJP a majority in the 294-seat Assembly. However, two polls — People's Pulse and Janmat — project the TMC comfortably ahead, and one poll (JV) signals a hung Assembly.
Which exit poll gives BJP the highest seat projection in West Bengal?
Praja Polls gives the BJP its highest projection, between 178 and 208 seats, against the TMC's 85 to 110. This is the most BJP-favourable survey among those released.
Which exit poll gives TMC the highest seat projection?
The Janmat exit poll is the most favourable to the TMC, projecting it between 195 and 205 seats — a comfortable majority — while placing the BJP at just 80 to 90 seats.
Is a hung Assembly possible in West Bengal after the 2021 election?
The JV exit poll is the only survey projecting a potential hung Assembly, with the BJP between 138 and 159 seats and the TMC between 131 and 152 — both short of the 148-seat majority mark.
When will West Bengal election 2021 results be declared?
Vote counting for the West Bengal Assembly election 2021 is scheduled for 2 May 2021. Exit polls are indicative and have historically diverged from final results in the state.
