Manoj Kumar Singh, Director of Matrize News Communications Pvt. Ltd, has said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing its most favourable electoral conditions ever in West Bengal, while Assam witnessed a largely one-sided finish in its closing phase and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) continues to hold a commanding advantage in Tamil Nadu. Speaking to IANS on 30 April, Singh cautioned that voting percentage alone cannot reliably predict electoral outcomes across these states.

Assam: A One-Sided Finish and a Congress Perception Problem

On Assam, Singh stressed that vote share and seat conversion are "two entirely different aspects" of electoral analysis, particularly in a smaller state where even marginal shifts can produce outsized results. He noted that the contest appeared to tilt decisively in its final phase, partly due to a controversy raised by the Indian National Congress (Congress) involving allegations linked to a passport issue concerning the wife of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

"The Chief Minister reacted swiftly, and action followed. After the allegations, Pawan Khera left Assam, which created a perception among Congress party workers that the leadership was weak," Singh said. He also argued that the traditional Hindu–Muslim narrative no longer dominates Assam politics, attributing the shift to delimitation, which he said increased the number of Hindu-majority constituencies. "After delimitation, that dynamic has changed considerably," he added.

Tamil Nadu: DMK Maintains Strong Grip Under Stalin

Singh said the DMK continues to maintain a firm hold on Tamil Nadu under the leadership of M.K. Stalin. He noted that actor Vijay's newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) generated enthusiasm, particularly among youth, but was expected to cut into the vote share of both the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) rather than decisively alter the balance of power.

"I had projected that DMK would secure around 122–132 seats, ensuring a clear majority without the possibility of a hung assembly. The AIADMK was estimated to win between 87 and 100 seats, while the TVK, being new, was expected to garner a notable vote share," Singh said.

West Bengal: BJP's Most Favourable Window Yet

Singh was notably confident about West Bengal, describing current conditions as the most favourable the BJP has ever encountered in the state. "This is the best opportunity for the BJP in Bengal; it cannot get better than this," he said, adding that exit poll trends also reflected this momentum. He highlighted a significant turnout of migrant voters, noting that many returned to cast their ballots out of concern that their names could be removed from voter lists or that they might face identity-related issues.

"Both the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP mobilised their supporters effectively," Singh observed, underscoring that high turnout alone does not indicate which party benefited more.

Kerala: Anti-Incumbency Defied, Concerns Linger

On Kerala, Singh stopped short of a clear prediction. He observed that despite expectations of anti-incumbency, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to retain power in 2021, defying the state's tradition of alternating governments. However, he suggested that the perceived age and reduced political aggression of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan could be factors working against the ruling alliance going forward.

The Broader Analytical Caution

Throughout the interview, Singh maintained that electoral outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of factors. He warned against simplistic interpretations based on isolated data points such as voting percentage, arguing that such readings frequently lead to flawed conclusions. Ground-level perception, candidate strength, and mobilisation capacity, he argued, often matter as much as aggregate turnout figures. How these dynamics ultimately translate into seats across these four states will be closely watched as results approach.