Tamil Nadu 2026 polls: DMK+ set for 125 seats, TVK projects 63 in Chanakya forecast
Synopsis
Today's Chanakya projects TVK — contesting its very first Assembly election — at 63 seats and 30% vote share in Tamil Nadu 2026, nearly matching the AIADMK's projected tally. If the forecast holds, Vijay's party won't just be a debutant; it will be the principal opposition, rewriting decades of two-front Tamil Nadu politics in a single election.
Key Takeaways
Today's Chanakya projects DMK+ winning around 125 seats (±11) with 39% vote share in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election .
TVK , contesting its first-ever Assembly election, is projected at 63 seats (±11) with a 30% vote share.
AIADMK+ is forecast to win around 45 seats (±11) with 27% vote share — one of its weakest projected performances.
DMK+ leads among SC voters at 43% , with TVK making notable inroads at 34% , pushing AIADMK+ to just 19% .
Minority communities back DMK+ strongly — 64% Muslim and 49% Christian support — though TVK draws 25% Muslim and 34% Christian votes.
Stalin is projected to retain power for a second consecutive term if the forecast holds.
A pre-election survey by Today's Chanakya projects the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (DMK+) on course for a comfortable majority in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, while actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is forecast to emerge as a formidable third force, fundamentally redrawing the state's opposition landscape.
DMK+ Projected to Retain Power
According to the Today's Chanakya forecast released on 30 April, the DMK+ is projected to win around 125 seats — with a margin of error of ±11 seats — in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. The alliance is backed by a projected vote share of 39 per cent (±3 per cent), placing it comfortably above the majority mark of 118 seats. The numbers strongly indicate that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin is on track to retain power for a second consecutive term.
TVK's Stunning Debut Projection
The most striking element of the forecast is the projected performance of TVK, contesting its first-ever Assembly election. The party is forecast to win around 63 seats (±11), backed by a vote share of 30 per cent (±3 per cent). This would position TVK not merely as a debutant but as a major political force capable of reshaping Tamil Nadu's electoral equations for years to come. Notably, TVK's projected vote share nearly matches that of the AIADMK-led alliance, which has governed the state for extended periods since the 1970s.
AIADMK+ Faces Steep Decline
The AIADMK-led alliance (AIADMK+) is projected to secure around 45 seats (±11), with a vote share of 27 per cent (±3 per cent). Despite retaining a solid support base, the alliance trails significantly behind both the DMK+ in seat conversion and faces a near-equal challenge from TVK in vote share — a scenario that would mark one of its weakest electoral performances in recent memory. This comes amid continued internal turbulence within the AIADMK following the death of former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa and the exit of key factions.
Caste-Wise Voting Patterns
The caste-wise breakdown reveals critical shifts in Tamil Nadu's vote arithmetic. Among Backward Classes (BC), the DMK+ leads with 36 per cent, followed by AIADMK+ at 32 per cent and TVK at 29 per cent. Among Most Backward Classes (MBC), the DMK+ commands 38 per cent, compared to AIADMK+'s 31 per cent and TVK's 27 per cent. The sharpest divergence is among Scheduled Castes (SC), where DMK+ holds a strong 43 per cent, while TVK has made notable inroads at 34 per cent, pushing AIADMK+ down to just 19 per cent. Experts note that caste figures do not add up to 100 per cent due to the presence of smaller parties and denotified tribes, with a margin of error of ±3 per cent.
Minority Vote and What Comes Next
Minority communities remain firmly aligned with the DMK+, with 64 per cent Muslim support and 49 per cent Christian backing, according to the forecast. However, TVK has attracted a sizeable minority vote as well — 25 per cent among Muslims and 34 per cent among Christians — signalling that Vijay's party is not solely relying on a single community or caste bloc. Overall, the projections indicate continuity in governance under the DMK, but with a transformed opposition space. Whether TVK can convert its projected vote share into seats at this scale will be the defining question of Tamil Nadu's 2026 election.
Point of View
Vijay's party will have achieved in one election what the AIADMK took decades to build: a cross-caste, cross-community vote base. The deeper concern for the AIADMK is existential — at 27% vote share and 45 seats, the party risks losing official opposition status to a political newcomer. Tamil Nadu has historically been a two-front state; a credible third force does not just change seat tallies, it changes coalition arithmetic, welfare politics, and the very language of electoral promises for the next decade.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Today's Chanakya forecast predict for the 2026 Tamil Nadu election?
Today's Chanakya projects the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at around 125 seats with 39% vote share, TVK at 63 seats with 30% vote share, and AIADMK+ at 45 seats with 27% vote share in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. The forecast carries a margin of error of ±11 seats and ±3% on vote share.
How many seats is TVK projected to win in its debut election?
TVK, the party founded by actor-politician Vijay, is projected to win around 63 seats (±11) with a 30% vote share in its first-ever Assembly election in 2026. This would make it the principal opposition party in Tamil Nadu, ahead of the AIADMK.
Is CM M.K. Stalin likely to retain power after the 2026 Tamil Nadu election?
According to the Today's Chanakya forecast, yes. The DMK-led alliance is projected at 125 seats — well above the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly — indicating a strong likelihood of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin returning for a second term.
How is the AIADMK performing in the 2026 Tamil Nadu election forecast?
The AIADMK-led alliance is projected to win around 45 seats with 27% vote share, one of its weakest projected performances in recent memory. The party faces pressure from both DMK+ and the rising TVK, which nearly matches it in vote share.
Which communities are supporting TVK in the 2026 Tamil Nadu election?
TVK has drawn support across caste and community lines, according to the forecast. It is projected at 29% among Backward Classes, 27% among Most Backward Classes, 34% among Scheduled Castes, 25% among Muslims, and 34% among Christians — a broad-based coalition for a first-time contestant.
