Kerala exit polls 2025: UDF eyes 85-90 seats; LDF dismisses forecasts
Synopsis
Nine exit polls have handed Kerala's UDF a clear edge ahead of the 4 May count, projecting 85–90 seats against an LDF that insists the surveys are wrong — setting up one of the most closely watched state verdicts of 2025.
Key Takeaways
Nine exit polls project the UDF winning between 85 and 90 seats in Kerala's 140-seat Assembly.
Vote counting is scheduled for 4 May 2025 ; the state voted on 9 April .
Muraleedharan says projections align with the party's internal estimate of 80–90 seats .
CM Pinarayi Vijayan has reportedly assured ministers of continuity even if the margin is narrow.
BJP , currently with zero seats , could gain up to four seats according to at least one survey.
Balan dismissed anti-incumbency concerns, arguing exit polls show a divergent picture in Tamil Nadu.
Exit polls projecting a strong performance for the United Democratic Front (UDF) have energised Kerala's opposition camp ahead of vote counting on Monday, 4 May, even as the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) dismisses the surveys as historically unreliable. The state voted on 9 April to elect 140 new legislators, and the political temperature has risen sharply in the days since.
What the Exit Polls Show
A total of nine exit polls — including those by Times Now-JVC, P-MARQ, People's Pulse, Vote Vibe, Axis My India, Chanakya Strategies, People Insight, and Journo Mirror — have collectively stopped short of predicting a continuation of the LDF government. Several surveys project the UDF crossing 85 seats, with some estimates suggesting the alliance could approach or even touch 90 if a broader electoral wave materialises. The BJP, which currently holds no seats in the outgoing Assembly, is cautiously optimistic, with at least one survey predicting up to four seat gains.
UDF Camp: Confident and Upbeat
Congress leader K. Muraleedharan, contesting from Vattiyoorkavu in a triangular fight, drew parallels with the 2014 general election, noting that exit polls then correctly predicted a change at the Centre. He said current projections similarly point towards a UDF victory, aligning with the party's internal assessment of winning between 80 and 90 seats. The UDF camp is visibly buoyant, with leaders interpreting the survey consensus as validation of their ground-level feedback.
LDF Response: Pushing Back Against Projections
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has reportedly conveyed confidence to ministers and officials, maintaining that even a narrow majority would ensure continuity in governance. Veteran Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] leader and former state Minister A.K. Balan, putting a brave face on the projections, said,
Point of View
But that argument carries diminishing weight when the consensus across agencies is this consistent. What is notable is that the BJP's potential gains, even if modest, could complicate seat arithmetic in a close contest. The real question is not just whether the UDF wins, but whether it crosses 70 — the threshold that would give it a working majority without depending on allies. Kerala's alternating-government pattern since 1982 also works against the LDF, a structural headwind that no amount of governance confidence can fully neutralise.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do Kerala exit polls 2025 predict?
Nine exit polls collectively project the UDF winning between 85 and 90 seats in Kerala's 140-seat Assembly, with none predicting a continuation of the LDF government. Vote counting is scheduled for 4 May 2025.
When is the Kerala election result date?
The Kerala Assembly election result will be declared on Monday, 4 May 2025. The state went to polls on 9 April to elect 140 legislators.
How many seats does the BJP currently hold in the Kerala Assembly?
The BJP holds zero seats in the outgoing Kerala Assembly. Exit polls suggest it could win up to four seats in the 2025 election, marking a potential footprint expansion.
What has Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said about the exit polls?
CM Pinarayi Vijayan has reportedly conveyed confidence to ministers and officials, maintaining that even a narrow majority would ensure continuity in governance. The LDF has broadly dismissed exit polls as historically unreliable.
What did Congress leader K. Muraleedharan say about the projections?
K. Muraleedharan, contesting from Vattiyoorkavu, drew parallels with the 2014 general election when exit polls correctly predicted a change at the Centre. He said current projections align with the UDF's internal estimate of winning 80 to 90 seats.
