Matrize Exit Poll 2025: BJP leads Bengal with 146–161 seats, dominates Assam
Synopsis
Matrize exit polls project a potentially historic BJP breakthrough in West Bengal — with 146–161 seats against TMC's 125–140 — while the BJP alliance dominates Assam at 85–95 seats. If accurate, the Bengal projection alone would redraw the national political map ahead of the next general election cycle.
Key Takeaways
BJP projected to win 146–161 seats in West Bengal with 42.5% vote share, per Matrize .
TMC forecast at 125–140 seats with 40.8% vote share in Bengal — potentially losing power.
BJP-led alliance projected to retain Assam with 85–95 seats and 45.5% vote share.
DMK alliance projected to win 122–132 seats in Tamil Nadu ; TVK emerges as third force with 10–12 seats .
UDF projected to narrowly lead LDF in Kerala at 70–75 seats vs 60–65 seats .
Exit poll projections are indicative; final results depend on counting day outcomes.
Matrize exit poll projections released on 29 April signal a potentially historic shift in West Bengal, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to win 146–161 seats in the state's 294-seat Assembly — enough to form a government — while the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) is forecast to trail at 125–140 seats. The survey also projects the BJP-led alliance retaining power comfortably in Assam and offers detailed seat projections across Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
West Bengal: BJP's Projected Surge
According to Matrize, the BJP is projected to secure a 42.5% vote share in West Bengal, edging past Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's TMC, which is forecast at 40.8%. If the projections hold, this would represent a dramatic reversal from the 2021 Assembly elections, where the TMC swept to a landslide victory. Other parties are projected to capture 6–10 seats, accounting for 16.7% of the vote. The majority mark in the 294-seat House stands at 148 seats, placing the BJP's upper range just above the threshold.
Assam: BJP Alliance Projected to Retain Power
In Assam's 126-seat Assembly, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 85–95 seats with a 45.5% vote share, according to Matrize — a commanding margin that would secure a clear majority. The Congress-led alliance is forecast to secure 25–32 seats with 39.8% of the vote. Other parties may win 6–12 seats, drawing 14.7% of the vote share. The majority mark in Assam is 64 seats.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Alliance Projected to Continue in Power
In Tamil Nadu's 234-seat Assembly, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance is projected to cross the majority mark with 122–132 seats and a 40.3% vote share, per Matrize. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance is forecast at 87–100 seats with a 37.1% vote share. Notably, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) — the party led by actor-turned-politician Vijay — is projected to emerge as a significant third force, winning 10–12 seats with a 17.5% vote share, signalling a potential realignment in Tamil Nadu politics.
Kerala: UDF Projected to Narrowly Lead LDF
In Kerala's 140-seat Assembly, Matrize projects a tight contest. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is forecast to secure 70–75 seats with 41.7% of the vote, slightly ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is estimated at 60–65 seats with a 39.5% vote share. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to remain a minor player with 3–5 seats, while others may win 2–4 seats. The majority mark in Kerala stands at 71 seats, placing the UDF's upper projection just at the threshold.
What to Watch as Counting Approaches
Exit poll projections carry inherent margins of error and have historically diverged from final results in states with complex social arithmetic, particularly West Bengal, where booth-level mobilisation and last-mile voter turnout can swing outcomes. The Matrize projections, if accurate, would mark a significant political realignment across four major states. Counting day will be the definitive test of these forecasts.
Point of View
Yet the seat projection gap is wide, reflecting Bengal's first-past-the-post volatility. In Assam, the BJP's dominance looks more durable and less contested. The real wildcard nationally is Kerala, where a UDF win would end the LDF's incumbency and signal that anti-incumbency — not just ideology — is driving voter behaviour across states simultaneously.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Matrize exit poll project for West Bengal?
Matrize projects the BJP winning 146–161 seats with a 42.5% vote share in West Bengal's 294-seat Assembly, while the ruling TMC is forecast at 125–140 seats with 40.8%. The majority mark is 148 seats, placing BJP's upper range just above the threshold.
What are the Matrize projections for Assam?
In Assam's 126-seat Assembly, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 85–95 seats with a 45.5% vote share, comfortably above the 64-seat majority mark. The Congress-led alliance is forecast at 25–32 seats with 39.8% of the vote.
How is the TVK expected to perform in Tamil Nadu according to Matrize?
The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor Vijay, is projected to win 10–12 seats with a 17.5% vote share — emerging as a significant third force in Tamil Nadu's 234-seat Assembly, per Matrize.
What does the Matrize exit poll say about Kerala?
Matrize projects the Congress-led UDF winning 70–75 seats with 41.7% of the vote in Kerala, narrowly ahead of the ruling LDF at 60–65 seats with 39.5%. The majority mark is 71 seats, making the contest extremely tight.
How reliable are exit polls in Indian state elections?
Exit polls are indicative projections based on voter surveys and carry margins of error. In states like West Bengal, past exit polls have significantly diverged from final results due to complex social dynamics and last-mile mobilisation. Counting day results are the only definitive measure.
