Is Nepal Stuck in Political Limbo as Power Struggles Emerge?

Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Political unrest in Nepal has arisen from corruption allegations.
- The army aligns with Gen Z, complicating interim government dynamics.
- Constitutional hurdles hinder the swift formation of a provisional government.
- Divisions among political factions delay negotiations.
- A return to monarchy seems improbable amid the current turmoil.
New Delhi, Sep 11 (NationPress) Many anticipated that Nepal would swiftly establish an interim government following the upheaval that resulted in the removal of the Prime Minister and several ministers implicated in widespread corruption. However, the process has hit a constitutional snag, as only a sitting member of Parliament is eligible for the position of interim Prime Minister.
While experts are exploring options to adhere to constitutional guidelines and form a provisional government, there are rising concerns about the potential emergence of an army-supported caretaker regime. The military has openly aligned itself with Gen Z, indicating that this group, which spearheaded the protests, will play a crucial role in any future governance.
Despite their previous unity during protests, divisions are surfacing regarding potential leadership for negotiations. Some factions support former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, while others back Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah.
This discord has delayed negotiations, intensifying fears of an army-backed caretaker government, which Nepal cannot afford at this critical juncture.
If a provisional government is formed, other parties, including the Communist UML and Nepali Congress, will seek representation. However, Gen Z is likely to oppose this, prolonging discussions further.
Like many, the army is advocating for significant change in Nepal and insists that those who fought for it should have a substantial voice in future governance.
Even proponents of monarchy restoration are in the mix, although experts argue that such a return is improbable, as it would necessitate constitutional amendments.
Intelligence reports indicate that protests are currently confined to urban centers like Kathmandu, Biratnagar, and Pokhara, but there's concern that they might extend to rural areas, making them harder to manage. Amidst this turmoil, Nepal's economy cannot withstand a crisis; prolonged closures of businesses would severely impact the populace.
Unlike Bangladesh, where a caretaker government was established after Sheikh Hasina's ouster, Nepal's situation is more intricate. One potential course of action is to implement Emergency Rule under Article 273 if Parliament is dissolved.
Additionally, the President may appoint a neutral figure via articles 76 and 77 if no party can secure a majority government. While the army backs Gen Z, it has clarified its disinterest in a military coup.
The military seeks a swift resolution to restore law and order and possesses sufficient leverage to compel political parties towards a consensus candidate for the interim role.
However, this scenario carries the risk of legal challenges from other political factions. Currently, a constitutional amendment appears unfeasible, as it would require a two-thirds majority in Parliament, which is unattainable under the present conditions. Declaring an emergency could have further negative consequences, worsening the situation.
At this point, the most viable option is to appoint a consensus candidate as the interim leader, necessitating agreement among all parties involved.