Poll of Polls 2026: BJP set to win Assam, Bengal; UDF to oust LDF in Kerala
Synopsis
Four out of six pollsters are calling West Bengal for the BJP — a result that would end over a decade of Mamata Banerjee's rule and mark the party's first-ever government in the state. Meanwhile, Kerala's Left front faces ouster, Tamil Nadu's alternating pattern may finally break, and Puducherry is unanimously projected to return the NDA. Counting on 4 May will settle one of the most consequential election cycles in recent Indian political history.
Key Takeaways
All major pollsters project a BJP landslide in Assam , with seat projections ranging from 85 to 101 seats across agencies.
Four of six pollsters project the BJP to form its first-ever government in West Bengal , displacing Mamata Banerjee 's TMC; two agencies still favour a TMC win.
In Kerala , most pollsters project the UDF returning to power, ending the LDF 's tenure as India's only Left-ruled state.
Most exit polls project DMK's M.K.
Stalin retaining Tamil Nadu , potentially breaking the state's alternating government pattern; Axis My India flags TVK as a surprise contender.
All pollsters unanimously project NDA's return in Puducherry , which recorded a record 89.87% turnout on 9 April .
Votes for all five states and Puducherry will be counted on 4 May .
A comprehensive poll of polls released on Wednesday, 29 April projects a strong performance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) across multiple states, with several agencies forecasting that the party will unseat the Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) government in West Bengal — a result that would mark the BJP's first-ever government in the state. The aggregated exit poll data covers four states — Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu — and the Union Territory of Puducherry, with votes to be counted on 4 May.
Assam: BJP Heading for Landslide
In Assam, all major pollsters project a commanding BJP majority in the 126-seat Assembly. Axis My India gives the BJP 88–100 seats and the Congress 24–36 seats, while Poll Diary projects 86–101 for the BJP and 15–26 for the Congress. Peoples Insight puts the BJP at 88–96 and the Congress at 30–34.
Janmat Polls forecasts BJP victories in 87–98 seats, and JVC projects 88–101 seats for the ruling party. Kamakhya Politics gives the BJP 85–95 seats, while Matrize projects 85–95 seats — reportedly its highest-ever projection for the party in the state. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and other parties are expected to draw a blank across most projections.
West Bengal: Four of Six Pollsters Back BJP Upset
The most closely watched contest is West Bengal, where four out of six pollsters have projected a BJP majority in the 294-seat Assembly, which would end over a decade of Trinamool Congress rule under Mamata Banerjee.
Praja Poll gives the BJP the widest margin, projecting 178–208 seats against 85–110 for the TMC. P-Marq forecasts 150–175 for the BJP and 118–138 for the TMC. Matrize projects 146–161 for the BJP and Poll Diary forecasts 142–171, with the TMC at 125–140 and 99–127 respectively.
However, two pollsters back a Trinamool retention. Peoples Pulse projects the TMC winning 177–187 seats and the BJP restricted to 95–110. Janmat Polls gives the TMC an even larger mandate of 195–205 seats, with the BJP at 80–90. The wide divergence in projections underscores the difficulty of polling in Bengal, where booth-level dynamics and minority vote consolidation have historically confounded exit polls.
Kerala: UDF Poised to Return, LDF Faces Ouster
In Kerala, most pollsters project the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) returning to power at the expense of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's Left Democratic Front (LDF) — which has been the only Left-ruled state in India.
Axis My India gives the UDF 78–90 seats and the LDF 49–62 in the 140-seat Assembly, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected at 0–3 seats. Peoples Pulse projects UDF at 75–85, LDF at 55–65, and NDA at 0–3. Vote Vibe sees UDF at 70–80, LDF at 58–68, and others including the BJP at 0–4.
Peoples Insight projects UDF at 66–76 and LDF at 58–68, but makes a notably bullish forecast for the BJP at 10–14 seats — significantly higher than other agencies. This would represent a historic breakthrough for the BJP in Kerala if realised.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Likely to Buck Alternating Pattern
Most exit polls project Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance retaining power in Tamil Nadu, potentially breaking the state's long-standing pattern of alternating governments between the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Praja Poll gives the DMK alliance 148–168 seats and the AIADMK alliance 61–81. Peoples Pulse projects 125–145 and 65–80 respectively. Peoples Insight forecasts 120–140 for the DMK alliance and 60–70 for the AIADMK. However, Axis My India offers a contrarian view, projecting a contest between the DMK (92–110 seats) and Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) (98–120 seats), with the AIADMK relegated to third at just 22–23 seats.
Conversely, JVC projects an AIADMK comeback with 128–147 seats and the DMK at 75–95, while Matrize forecasts a close contest with the DMK at 122–132 and the AIADMK at 87–100. The 234-seat Assembly result will be one of the most closely watched outcomes of the counting day.
Puducherry: NDA Set for Return
All exit polls unanimously project the return of the NDA government in Puducherry, led by Chief Minister N. Rangasamy's All India N.R. Congress (AINRC). Praja Poll gives the NDA 19–25 seats in the 30-seat Assembly, while the Congress-led alliance is projected at 6–10. Axis My India projects NDA at 16–20 and the Congress alliance at 6–8. Puducherry voted on 9 April and recorded an 89.87% turnout — the highest since 1964. Counting for all five states and the Union Territory is scheduled for 4 May.
Point of View
Where four agencies are calling a historic upset against Mamata Banerjee. Yet the two dissenting pollsters, including Janmat Polls projecting a TMC blowout of 195–205 seats, are a reminder that Bengal has confounded exit polls before. The divergence is not noise; it reflects genuine uncertainty about minority vote consolidation and last-mile booth management that aggregate models struggle to capture. In Kerala, the LDF's likely ouster would extinguish the last Left-governed state in India — a structural shift that goes beyond one election cycle. The Tamil Nadu wildcard — Axis My India's TVK projection — deserves scrutiny: if even partially accurate, it signals a generational disruption in Dravidian politics that no other agency has captured.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the 2026 assembly election exit polls predict for West Bengal?
Four out of six pollsters project the BJP winning a majority in West Bengal's 294-seat Assembly, which would mark the party's first-ever government in the state. Projections range from 142–208 seats for the BJP, while two agencies — Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls — still forecast a Trinamool Congress win.
What do exit polls say about the Kerala 2026 assembly election?
Most pollsters project the Congress-led UDF returning to power in Kerala, ending the LDF's tenure as India's only Left-ruled state. UDF seat projections range from 66–90 seats in the 140-seat Assembly, while the LDF is forecast between 49 and 68 seats.
When will the 2026 assembly election results be declared?
Counting for all five states — Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu — and the Union Territory of Puducherry is scheduled for 4 May 2026.
What do exit polls predict for Tamil Nadu 2026?
Most exit polls project the DMK-led alliance retaining power in Tamil Nadu, with projections ranging from 92–168 seats. However, Axis My India projects a surprise contest between the DMK and TVK, while JVC forecasts an AIADMK comeback with 128–147 seats.
What is the exit poll forecast for Puducherry 2026?
All exit polls unanimously project the NDA, led by Chief Minister N. Rangasamy's AINRC, returning to power in Puducherry. NDA seat projections range from 16–25 in the 30-seat Assembly, against 4–12 for the Congress-led alliance.
