TMC rejects Bengal exit polls, cites 2021 landslide to question credibility
Synopsis
TMC is pushing back hard against exit polls showing a BJP edge in West Bengal — and they have history on their side. In 2021, exit polls projected a near-tie; TMC won 215 seats to BJP's 77. With counting set for May 4, the party is betting that Bengal's decisive mandates will once again defy the pollsters.
Key Takeaways
Trinamool Congress dismissed exit poll projections on 30 April showing a BJP edge in the West Bengal Assembly elections .
Rajya Sabha MP Derek O'Brien cited the 2021 elections , where exit polls projected 143–162 seats for TMC and 115–147 for BJP — TMC won 215 , BJP won 77 .
Former Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale predicted TMC will form the government on 4 May with a "massive mandate".
P-MARQ projects BJP at 150–175 seats , TMC at 118–138 ; Matrize gives BJP 146–161 , TMC 125–140 .
People's Pulse bucks the trend, projecting TMC ahead at 178–189 seats against BJP's 96–110 .
The Trinamool Congress (TMC) on Wednesday, 30 April dismissed exit poll projections indicating an advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the West Bengal Assembly elections, pointing to the 2021 polls — where similar forecasts missed the final outcome by a wide margin — to challenge the credibility of such surveys.
O'Brien Questions Exit Poll Track Record
Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha MP Derek O'Brien took to X (formerly Twitter) to highlight the divergence between exit poll projections and actual results in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections. O'Brien shared data from three exit polls that had forecast a close contest between the TMC and the BJP, while the TMC ultimately secured a landslide victory.
Point of View
Not spin. But it cuts both ways: if pollsters underestimated TMC then, they could be underestimating BJP now. What's striking is the wide divergence among current exit polls themselves — People's Pulse and P-MARQ are nearly 80 seats apart on the BJP tally, which signals either serious methodological gaps or genuine electoral uncertainty on the ground. Bengal's winner-takes-all political culture means the margin of error in exit polls here carries outsized consequences. May 4 will be a reckoning not just for the parties, but for the polling industry.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trinamool Congress say about the West Bengal exit polls?
The Trinamool Congress dismissed exit poll projections showing a BJP edge in the West Bengal Assembly elections, arguing that such surveys have historically failed to capture the state's decisive electoral mandates. TMC Rajya Sabha MP Derek O'Brien cited the 2021 elections, where exit polls were significantly off the final result.
How inaccurate were exit polls in the 2021 West Bengal elections?
In 2021, three major exit polls projected TMC winning 143–162 seats and BJP winning 115–147 seats, suggesting a close contest. In reality, TMC won 215 seats while BJP secured only 77 — a margin far wider than any poll had forecast.
What are the current exit poll projections for the West Bengal Assembly elections?
Most exit polls project a close contest. P-MARQ gives BJP 150–175 seats and TMC 118–138; Matrize projects BJP at 146–161 and TMC at 125–140; Chanakya Strategies puts BJP at 150–160 and TMC at 130–140. People's Pulse is an outlier, projecting TMC ahead at 178–189 seats against BJP's 96–110.
When will West Bengal election results be declared?
According to former Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale, counting is scheduled for 4 May, when the outcome of the two-phase West Bengal Assembly elections will be known.
Why do exit polls often struggle to predict West Bengal election results?
Political observers note that West Bengal's electoral mandates tend to be decisive rather than close, making it difficult for exit polls — which often hedge by projecting tight contests — to accurately capture the scale of a winning party's majority. The state's complex social and political dynamics add further uncertainty to survey-based projections.
