West Bengal exit polls: BJP leads in 3 of 4, only Peoples Pulse backs Mamata
Synopsis
Three of four exit polls call West Bengal for the BJP — a result that would end Mamata Banerjee's decade-long grip on the state. But Peoples Pulse stands alone projecting a TMC landslide of 177–187 seats. With Bengal's exit polls carrying a mixed historical record, the actual count could still upend every projection.
Key Takeaways
3 of 4 exit polls project a BJP victory in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly .
Matrize projects BJP at 146–161 seats ; P-Marq at up to 175 seats ; Poll Diary at 142–171 seats .
Peoples Pulse is the sole outlier, projecting TMC at 177–187 seats and BJP at 95–100 seats .
Congress and Left parties face near-decimation across all four polls, projected at 5–10 seats combined.
Voter turnout was exceptionally high — 93% in Phase 1 and 89.99% in Phase 2 until 5 pm.
Three out of four exit polls have projected a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections, potentially ending weeks of political suspense in one of India's most fiercely contested state battles. The lone dissenting pollster, Peoples Pulse, has forecast a fourth consecutive term for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).
What the Exit Polls Show
Pollster Matrize projects the BJP winning 146–161 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, with the TMC trailing at 125–160 seats. Other parties, including the Indian National Congress (Congress) and the Left Front, are projected to win just 6–10 seats combined — a near-total decimation.
P-Marq is more bullish on the BJP, projecting the party's upper estimate at 175 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 148, while placing the TMC at 118–138 seats. Poll Diary similarly projects the BJP at 142–171 seats and the TMC at 99–127 seats, with others winning around 5–10 seats.
Only Peoples Pulse breaks from this consensus, projecting the TMC at 177–187 seats and the BJP at 95–100 seats — a reversal that, if accurate, would hand Mamata Banerjee a commanding fourth-term mandate.
The Broader Political Context
West Bengal has emerged as one of India's most high-stakes electoral battlegrounds over the past decade. The BJP made significant inroads in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 18 of 42 parliamentary seats, before falling short in the 2021 Assembly elections, where the TMC secured a decisive majority. This election is being watched as a litmus test of whether that 2021 BJP momentum has been sustained, reversed, or amplified.
Notably, the contest has effectively narrowed into a straight BJP versus TMC fight. Congress and the Left, once dominant forces in the state, are reportedly facing near-elimination according to the majority of exit polls — a structural shift in Bengal's political landscape that has been building for several election cycles.
Voter Turnout Signals High Engagement
Both phases of the election recorded exceptionally high voter participation. The first phase saw approximately 93% polling, while the second phase recorded 89.99% turnout until 5 pm. High turnout in contested states is often read as an indicator of anti-incumbency or strong challenger momentum, though analysts caution against drawing definitive conclusions from participation figures alone.
What Happens Next
With voting now concluded, the fate of all candidates stands sealed. The actual vote count will determine whether the BJP has successfully breached Mamata Banerjee's stronghold or whether the TMC's organisational machinery has once again outperformed pre-election projections. Exit polls in West Bengal have historically carried a mixed track record, and the wide seat-range spreads across multiple pollsters reflect genuine uncertainty on the ground.
Point of View
But the spread in seat projections — P-Marq's upper estimate of 175 versus Peoples Pulse's TMC tally of 177 — reveals just how genuinely contested this state remains. Bengal has consistently humbled pollsters; the 2021 election saw most agencies underestimate TMC's ground strength. The more telling detail here is the collapse of Congress and the Left: whatever the final result, Bengal's political map is being redrawn into a permanent two-party state. That structural shift may outlast any single election outcome.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the West Bengal exit polls predict?
Three of four exit polls — Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary — project a BJP victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections, with the party crossing or approaching the majority mark of 148 seats. Only Peoples Pulse projects a TMC win, forecasting 177–187 seats for Mamata Banerjee's party.
How many seats does BJP need to win in West Bengal?
The West Bengal Legislative Assembly has 294 seats, making 148 the majority mark. Three exit polls project the BJP at or above this threshold, with P-Marq's upper estimate reaching 175 seats.
Is Mamata Banerjee projected to win a fourth term?
Only one pollster, Peoples Pulse, projects a fourth consecutive term for Mamata Banerjee, forecasting TMC at 177–187 seats. The other three agencies — Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary — project the BJP ahead of the TMC.
What happened to Congress and the Left in West Bengal exit polls?
Congress and Left parties are projected to win just 5–10 seats combined across most exit polls, indicating a near-total collapse of the two forces that once dominated Bengal politics.
How reliable are West Bengal exit polls historically?
Exit polls in West Bengal have carried a mixed track record. In the 2021 Assembly elections, most agencies underestimated the TMC's ground strength and seat tally, making the wide projection ranges in the current polls a reason for caution.
