Will South Korea's Exports Decline This Year Without Chip Shipments?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- South Korea's exports could exceed $700 billion by 2025.
- Shipments excluding semiconductors projected to decline.
- Semiconductors account for 28.3% of total exports.
- Automobiles and ships saw significant export growth.
- Concerns about over-reliance on the chip sector.
Seoul, Dec 7 (NationPress) South Korea is on track to achieve exports exceeding a record $700 billion by 2025, yet recent government data indicates that shipments, when excluding semiconductors, are anticipated to experience an annual drop.
From January to November, exports reached an impressive total of $640.2 billion, marking a 2.9 percent increase compared to the same period last year, and setting a new record for this timeframe, as reported by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources. The previous highest was $628.7 billion in 2022, according to Yonhap news agency.
This year, the government forecasts total exports will surpass the $700 billion milestone for the first time.
However, when semiconductors are excluded—an industry currently enjoying an “industrywide super cycle”—exports are predicted to decline due to ongoing global trade uncertainties and slowdowns across various sectors, including steel, petrochemicals, and secondary batteries.
Exports, minus semiconductors, fell by 1.5 percent year-on-year to $487.6 billion.
Notably, shipments of automobiles, ships, biohealth products, and computers saw increases of 2 percent, 28.6 percent, 7 percent, and 0.4 percent, respectively. Conversely, other sectors experienced declines.
Exports of machinery dropped by 8.9 percent, while petroleum products and petrochemical products fell by 11.1 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively. Steel shipments saw a decrease of 8.8 percent. Additionally, exports of auto parts, displays, home appliances, and secondary batteries fell by 6.3 percent, 10.3 percent, 9.4 percent, and 11.8 percent, respectively.
In November, semiconductors represented 28.3 percent of South Korea's total exports, a record high for the year, raising concerns about excessive reliance on the chip sector. Between 2002 and 2010, semiconductors accounted for approximately 10 percent of total exports.
Deputy Trade and Investment Minister Kang Kam-chan remarked, "While our exports are indeed heavily reliant on semiconductors, the fact that exports excluding semiconductors only fell by 1.5 percent is a fairly robust outcome."
Kang further noted that strong demand for semiconductors is expected to persist into next year, driven by the ongoing growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers.