Is South Asia Prepared for Another Wave of Militancy in Bangladesh?
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Synopsis
The recent release of over 300 individuals accused in militancy-related cases in Bangladesh raises alarm bells not just for its internal security but for the stability of the entire South Asian region. The implications of this decision could lead to a resurgence of extremism, necessitating urgent bilateral talks and coordinated responses from Bangladesh and India.
Key Takeaways
- The release of militants poses a regional security threat.
- Bangladesh's internal stability is at risk following government changes.
- India's northeastern states could become targets for extremist activities.
- International oversight may be needed to ensure security during Bangladesh's transition.
- Collaboration between Bangladesh and India is crucial for counter-terrorism efforts.
New Delhi: Following the mass uprising in Bangladesh and the subsequent downfall of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, a highly concerning trend has surfaced that jeopardizes not only the nation's internal stability but also the precarious peace throughout the South Asian region. The abrupt and contentious release of over 300 individuals implicated in militancy-related offenses signifies more than mere domestic political maneuvering — it heralds a potential regional security crisis.
Central to this predicament is the post-August 5, 2024 scenario in Bangladesh, where a military-backed administration led by Muhammad Yunus has taken control amid widespread controversy, suspicion, and fear. While Yunus' ascent was initially seen by some as a triumph for civil society and global recognition, his government’s recent actions — or lack thereof — reveal a much more complex and alarming reality.
Since the coup, judicial and political entities in Dhaka have discreetly facilitated the release of individuals associated with some of South Asia’s most notorious militant organizations, including Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), and Hizb-ut-Tahrir. These groups have long been condemned by both the Bangladeshi government and international counterterrorism bodies.
Among the released are those convicted of heinous crimes including murders, financing terror, bombings, and direct ties to transnational jihadist entities. Some were implicated in the horrific 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack, which resulted in 22 fatalities, including foreign nationals. Others plotted the assassinations of secular writers, scholars, and activists during a period from 2013 to 2016 that saw Bangladesh grappling with a surge of extremist violence.
The current regime asserts that many of these convictions were politically motivated by the prior Awami League government. While seeking legal redress is a fundamental right, the alarming number, rapid pace, and lack of transparency surrounding these bail decisions have raised red flags among regional intelligence agencies.
India, which shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, cannot afford to overlook this situation. Over the last decade, New Delhi has fortified its counter-terrorism collaboration with Dhaka, leading to successful operations like the crackdown on JMB cells in West Bengal and Assam, the 2014 Burdwan blast investigation, and real-time intelligence sharing to dismantle cross-border networks.
The liberation of hundreds of ideologically committed militants — many of whom still possess digital access, sleeper cell connections, and sympathizers — poses a risk of rejuvenating dormant extremist factions, not only within Bangladesh but also in India’s vulnerable northeastern states. Already, propaganda materials associated with groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) are resurfacing on encrypted networks.
Indian states such as West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura, which have historically been vulnerable due to their demographic complexities and porous borders, could again find themselves targeted.
This issue transcends the borders of India and Bangladesh. South Asia, as a region, is already fragile — beset by sectarian strife, refugee crises, climate-induced displacement, and escalating geopolitical rivalries. The resurgence of jihadist militancy in Bangladesh, a country once celebrated for dismantling its extremist networks post-2016, could seriously jeopardize regional cooperation frameworks like BIMSTEC.
Even more concerning, this situation creates fertile ground for global jihadist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and even ISIS-inspired factions to recruit and find new safe havens. These groups are skilled at capitalizing on political vacuums, societal disillusionment, and governmental oversights.
A militant resurgence in Bangladesh would not remain confined to its borders — it could extend into Myanmar’s Rakhine state, India’s northeast, and further west towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, as part of the broader jihadist movement.
The current administration and its supporters argue that many of those released have shown remorse. Some clerics and community leaders, including figures like Mufti Jasim Uddin Rahmani, now profess to reject violence. However, deradicalization is not merely a declaration — it is a lengthy process requiring structured psychological support, education, and ongoing monitoring.
The decision to release numerous individuals within weeks, without adequate vetting, rehabilitation, or public transparency, indicates not reform, but irresponsibility. Worse, it suggests political appeasement, particularly if the current regime seeks to align with Islamist factions as a counterbalance to the secular forces that once advocated a strong anti-militancy stance.
Equally alarming is the growing narrative among certain government officials that the entire militancy crisis was a mere fabrication of the previous regime. This assertion is not only historically inaccurate — it is an affront to the victims, survivors, and countless security personnel who sacrificed their lives for the nation’s peace.
At this juncture, silence is not an option. It is not just the security of Bangladesh that is at stake but also the integrity of its counterterrorism initiatives in the region. The time has come for Bangladesh and India to engage in high-level bilateral discussions that specifically address security and militancy, while also revitalizing intelligence cooperation frameworks to monitor the individuals who have been released.
Additionally, both nations should collaborate on this matter within BIMSTEC and other regional platforms, advocating for a coordinated regional response mechanism to counter any resurgence of extremist activities. Equally important is the need to support civil society organizations that are actively working on counter-radicalization, promoting secular education, and fostering community cohesion. Furthermore, both countries should push for international oversight, potentially through the United Nations or global human rights bodies, to ensure that justice and security are upheld during Bangladesh’s transitional phase.
South Asia stands at a pivotal moment. The peace it has experienced — though imperfect — has been hard-won. Bangladesh’s efforts against militancy, particularly post-2016, were viewed globally as a model of resilience. Undermining that legacy through hastily made political choices is more than a misjudgment — it’s a risk.
For Yunus and his administration, the world is watching. For India, the message is unmistakable: the safety of the neighborhood is only as strong as its weakest link. If the current path continues, it won’t just be Bangladesh that bears the consequences but an entire region already fraught with vulnerabilities. The price of inaction is too steep. The time to act is now.
(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal)
