Today's Chanakya exit poll: BJP set for clear majority in West Bengal
Synopsis
Today's Chanakya has broken from the pack — while most exit polls call West Bengal a close fight, this agency projects BJP at 192 seats and a 10-point vote share lead over TMC. If the numbers hold on 4 May, it would be the most dramatic political realignment in Bengal since 2011.
Key Takeaways
Today's Chanakya projects BJP winning 192 seats (±11) in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly .
Trinamool Congress is projected at 100 seats (±11) , with others at zero to two seats .
BJP vote share projected at 48% (±3) versus TMC at 38% (±3) .
Only Today's Chanakya and Praja Polls predict a clear majority for BJP ; most other agencies called it a closer contest.
Voting was held on 23 April and 29 April ; results will be declared on 4 May .
A BJP win would end 15 years of TMC rule in West Bengal dating back to 2011 .
Exit poll agency Today's Chanakya on Thursday, 30 April released its projections for the two-phase West Bengal Assembly elections, predicting a clear majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — a result that, if borne out, would end 15 years of All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) rule in the eastern state since 2011.
Key Seat and Vote Share Projections
According to Today's Chanakya, the BJP is projected to win 192 seats (±11) in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 148. The ruling Trinamool Congress, by contrast, is projected at just 100 seats (±11). The combined tally for others — including the Indian National Congress, the Left Front, and the All India Secular Front alliance — is projected at a negligible zero to two seats.
On vote share, Today's Chanakya projects the BJP at 48% (±3), the Trinamool Congress at 38% (±3), and all others at 14% (±3) — a double-digit gap that, if accurate, would represent a decisive popular mandate.
Where Today's Chanakya Stands Among Exit Polls
The 30 April release follows a wave of exit poll projections that emerged on Wednesday, after the conclusion of the second and final phase of voting on 29 April. As reported by IANS, the overwhelming majority of agencies predicted a BJP victory and the end of the TMC regime — but most described the contest as broadly neck-and-neck.
Today's Chanakya and Praja Polls are, notably, the only two agencies that have projected a clear and decisive majority for the BJP. Praja Polls placed the BJP between 178 and 208 seats, the Trinamool Congress between 85 and 110 seats, and others at two to three seats — broadly consistent with the Today's Chanakya reading.
Election Timeline and What's at Stake
The West Bengal Assembly elections were conducted in two phases — on 23 April and 29 April. Results are scheduled to be declared on 4 May. The state's 294 Assembly constituencies make it one of the largest and most politically consequential state elections in India.
A BJP win would mark a dramatic political shift for West Bengal, which has been governed by the Trinamool Congress under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee since 2011, when the party ended over three decades of Left Front rule. The state has been a flashpoint for political rivalry between the BJP and the TMC, with both parties having clashed repeatedly over governance, law and order, and central-state relations.
A Note on Exit Poll Reliability
Exit polls, while indicative, carry significant margins of error — as demonstrated in several past Indian state elections where projections diverged sharply from actual results. The ±11 seat margin cited by Today's Chanakya itself underscores the inherent uncertainty. The definitive picture will emerge only when counting begins on 4 May.
Point of View
In Indian first-past-the-post arithmetic, translates into a landslide seat count. Yet the history of Bengal exit polls is littered with overcorrections; the state's booth-level polarisation and TMC's ground machinery have repeatedly confounded national agencies. The real question on 4 May is not just who wins, but whether the margin vindicates the outlier call or exposes the limits of post-poll sampling in a state where social pressure on voters is well-documented.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Today's Chanakya predict for the West Bengal election?
Today's Chanakya projects the BJP winning 192 seats (±11) in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, well above the majority mark of 148, while the Trinamool Congress is projected at 100 seats (±11). The agency also gives BJP a 48% vote share against TMC's 38%.
When will West Bengal election results be declared?
The West Bengal Assembly election results will be declared on 4 May. Voting was conducted in two phases on 23 April and 29 April 2025.
How does Today's Chanakya's prediction compare to other exit polls?
Most exit poll agencies predicted a BJP victory but described the contest as neck-and-neck. Today's Chanakya and Praja Polls are the only two agencies that have projected a clear and decisive majority for the BJP, making their forecasts the most bullish for the party.
What would a BJP win mean for West Bengal?
A BJP win would end 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule in West Bengal, which began in 2011 when the TMC ousted over three decades of Left Front government. It would be the most significant political realignment in the state in over a decade.
Are exit polls reliable for West Bengal elections?
Exit polls carry significant margins of error, and Bengal's complex booth-level dynamics have historically made it difficult to predict outcomes accurately. The ±11 seat margin in Today's Chanakya's own projection reflects this uncertainty; the actual results on 4 May will be the definitive verdict.
