Kerala exit poll 2025: Today's Chanakya projects tight UDF-LDF race, hung House possible
Synopsis
While most pollsters hand Kerala's UDF a comfortable majority, Today's Chanakya has thrown a curveball — projecting a razor-thin UDF lead that puts a hung House firmly on the table. With just a 2-percentage-point vote share gap between the UDF and LDF, and the NDA potentially holding kingmaker status, the 4 May count could be Kerala's most suspenseful in years.
Key Takeaways
Today's Chanakya projects UDF at 69 seats (+/-9) — just on the cusp of the 71-seat majority in the 140-member Kerala Assembly .
LDF is projected at 64 seats (+/-9) , with overlapping error margins making the race genuinely competitive.
NDA is expected to win 3–11 seats , potentially playing kingmaker in a hung House scenario.
Most other pollsters — including Axis My India , People's Pulse , and Matrize — project UDF winning 72–85 seats , well above the majority mark.
Vote share gap between UDF (40%) and LDF (38%) is just 2 percentage points , within the margin of error.
Official Kerala election results will be declared on 4 May 2025 .
A surprise exit poll projection by Today's Chanakya, released on Thursday, 30 April 2025, has injected fresh uncertainty into Kerala's electoral landscape ahead of the official Kerala Assembly election results on 4 May 2025. The projection has unsettled the United Democratic Front (UDF) camp, even as a majority of other pollsters forecast a comfortable UDF victory in the 140-seat Kerala Assembly.
What Today's Chanakya Projects
According to Today's Chanakya, the UDF — led by the Indian National Congress (Congress) — may secure 69 seats (+/-9), placing it in the 60–78 seat range, just on the cusp of the 71-seat majority mark. The Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), is projected at 64 seats (+/-9), or a range of 55–73 seats, indicating a neck-and-neck contest. The margin between the two fronts, the agency suggests, could be wafer-thin.
Crucially, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to improve its tally to 3–11 seats, potentially emerging as a kingmaker in a fractured verdict scenario.
Vote Share Estimates Underline the Tightness
Vote share projections by Today's Chanakya further reinforce the competitiveness of the race. The UDF is pegged at 40% (+/-3%), the LDF at 38% (+/-3%), and the NDA at 20% (+/-3%). The 2-percentage-point gap between the two leading fronts suggests that even marginal voter swings in closely fought constituencies could decisively alter outcomes across the state.
How Other Pollsters Differ
The divergence in projections has become the defining talking point of the election's final phase. Pollsters including Axis My India, People's Pulse, VoteVibe, Matrize, and JVC have broadly projected the UDF crossing the 71-seat majority mark, with most estimates placing it between 72 and 85 seats — well above the threshold. Today's Chanakya's lower-end estimate of 60 seats stands in stark contrast, raising concerns within the UDF alliance about overconfidence and last-mile voter shifts.
Notably, this is not the first time exit poll projections in Kerala have diverged sharply. In previous cycles, the state's competitive two-front dynamic has produced results that surprised even seasoned analysts.
What the LDF Camp Reads Into This
The LDF, though trailing in most surveys, remains within striking distance in Today's Chanakya's projection. The overlap in the error margins of the two fronts — UDF's lower bound at 60 and LDF's upper bound at 73 — means a LDF majority, while not the central projection, cannot be mathematically ruled out. This has given the ruling front reason to maintain campaign energy through the final stretch.
What Happens Next
Official results will be declared on 4 May 2025. With every seat now critical and the NDA potentially holding balance-of-power significance in a hung House scenario, counting day is set to be closely watched. As history has repeatedly shown in Kerala, exit polls — however sophisticated — have often struggled to capture the state's granular constituency-level dynamics.
Point of View
Minority bloc consolidation, and last-mile mobilisation have repeatedly humbled aggregated projections. The real story here is not which poll is right, but that a 2-percentage-point vote share gap — well within every agency's margin of error — means the UDF's majority is far from guaranteed. If the NDA does win 8–11 seats, its leverage in a fractured House becomes a political variable that neither front is publicly preparing for, but both are privately calculating.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Today's Chanakya project for the Kerala Assembly election 2025?
Today's Chanakya projected the UDF at 69 seats (+/-9), placing it in the 60–78 range — just on the cusp of the 71-seat majority in the 140-member Kerala Assembly. The LDF was projected at 64 seats (+/-9), raising the possibility of a hung House.
When will Kerala Assembly election results be declared?
Official Kerala Assembly election results will be declared on 4 May 2025. Exit poll projections, including Today's Chanakya's, are estimates and may not reflect the final outcome.
How do other exit polls differ from Today's Chanakya's Kerala projection?
Pollsters including Axis My India, People's Pulse, VoteVibe, Matrize, and JVC broadly project the UDF winning between 72 and 85 seats — well above the 71-seat majority mark. Today's Chanakya's lower-end estimate of 60 seats stands in sharp contrast.
What role could the NDA play in Kerala's election result?
Today's Chanakya projects the NDA winning 3–11 seats in Kerala. In a hung House scenario where neither the UDF nor LDF secures a clear majority, the NDA could emerge as a crucial balance-of-power force.
What is the vote share gap between UDF and LDF in Kerala according to exit polls?
Today's Chanakya projects the UDF at 40% (+/-3%) and the LDF at 38% (+/-3%), a gap of just 2 percentage points — well within the margin of error, suggesting small voter swings could significantly alter seat outcomes.
