The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Tuesday, 28 April 2025, that it is withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+, effective 1 May 2025, in what analysts are calling a significant blow to the Saudi Arabia-led oil cartel. The decision strips OPEC of a member that accounts for roughly 15 per cent of the group's total oil exports.

Why the UAE Is Leaving

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei announced the exit via a public statement on X, framing it as a strategic realignment. "The UAE's decision to exit OPEC aligns with sector policy-driven developments and is consistent with long-term market fundamentals," Mazrouei stated. He added that operating outside the group's obligations would give the UAE "more flexibility" in managing its energy profile. The official statement cited the country's "long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile" as the driving rationale. Despite the departure, Mazrouei expressed gratitude for "decades of constructive cooperation" and reaffirmed the UAE's "commitment to energy security by providing reliable, responsible, and low-emission supplies, supporting global market stability."

What This Means for OPEC

The UAE's exit reduces OPEC's active membership to 11 nations, following earlier departures by Qatar, Angola, Ecuador, and Indonesia over the past decade. According to the latest OPEC data, the UAE produces 2.9 million barrels of oil per day, compared to Saudi Arabia's nine million barrels — making the UAE one of the cartel's most significant producers. The loss comes at a particularly difficult moment for the group, as Persian Gulf oil exporters are reportedly absorbing heavy export disruptions linked to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump Factor

Analysts widely view the UAE's exit as a geopolitical windfall for US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly and publicly attacked OPEC for what he describes as artificially inflated oil prices. Trump has accused the cartel of "ripping off the rest of the world" by coordinating production cuts to keep prices elevated. The UAE's decision to operate independently of OPEC production quotas could, in theory, allow it to ramp up output — adding supply pressure that aligns with Washington's stated interest in lower global oil prices.

OPEC's Origins and Remaining Members

OPEC was founded in 1960 by five nations — Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela — with the explicit goal of coordinating production to maintain price floors and maximise member revenues. Its membership has expanded and contracted over the decades. Following the UAE's departure, the remaining 11 active members are Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo. The broader OPEC+ alliance, which the UAE is also exiting, includes non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Oman, Malaysia, Mexico, Bahrain, Brunei, South Sudan, and Sudan.

What Happens Next

With the UAE now free of production quota obligations, market watchers will closely track whether Abu Dhabi moves to meaningfully increase output — a step that could accelerate a global oil price correction. Saudi Arabia, as OPEC's de facto leader, faces the dual challenge of holding the remaining coalition together while managing a market already under pressure from geopolitical disruption. The UAE's exit is likely to intensify internal debates within OPEC about the cartel's long-term relevance in a rapidly shifting energy landscape.