Are Ukraine's NATO Aspirations Facing More Setbacks?

New Delhi: Ukraine's ambitions to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU) faced a significant setback this week, as the NATO Summit in The Hague concluded without addressing these aspirations in the official statement.

Nonetheless, NATO member nations have committed to investing five percent of their GDP, which breaks down to 3.5 percent for core defense and 1.5 percent for defense and security infrastructure by 2035.

The Summit facilitated a boost in defense equipment production among European contractors, with NATO leaders agreeing to enhance their defense budgets.

US President Donald Trump celebrated this as a 'monumental win', emphasizing that NATO allies should not depend on the US for military assistance.

Under Trump's influence, the increased NATO defense budget is expected to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to refrain from aggressive actions in Kyiv.

Europe is focused on severely undermining Russia, aiming for its defeat rather than mere containment. Germany is actively supporting Ukraine with financial aid, weaponry, and establishing production facilities for arms. The EU has enacted 17 sanctions packages, with the latest introduced on May 14.

For the first time, Trump's perspectives were backed by NATO members, all aiming to secure Europe from Putin's threats. However, the summit exposed numerous rifts and divisions between the US and European nations regarding Russia's military capabilities and intentions.

A relatively relaxed interaction was observed between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Analysts predict that Russia might initiate a large-scale military offensive against Ukraine in the upcoming months. While Russia is amassing forces with assistance from North Korea, Ukraine is counting on the EU and NATO for advanced defense systems, including drones. Zelensky discussed the possibility of acquiring the US Patriot Air Defense Systems (ADS) and collaborating on weapon production with Trump. Reports suggest that Trump is considering selling the US Patriot ADS and missiles to bolster Ukraine’s defensive capabilities alongside their European allies.

Ukraine is prepared to pay between USD $30-50 billion directly to the US or via the fund established under the US-Ukraine mineral deal for the ADS. Additionally, Ukraine has upgraded its naval drone, Katran, enhancing its strike range to targets up to 100 kilometers away.

The battle against Russian reconnaissance and drone operations remains a top priority for Ukraine. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have reportedly decimated up to one-third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from 2022 to 2024. The Ukrainian drone program has proven to be a significant force multiplier, with plans to exceed last year's production of over a million drones to over two million this year.

Zelensky referred to a recent drone operation on June 1, named ‘Spider’s Web’, which targeted five Russian air bases across a vast range of 3000 km north-south and 5000 km west-east, utilizing 117 drones in a single mission.

The drones were aimed at regions including Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur. Russian air defense systems failed in the Murmansk and Irkutsk areas, resulting in the destruction of at least 41 Russian heavy bombers.

Meanwhile, Russia has deployed Iranian-designed drones, many of which are now manufactured at the Yelabuga drone factory in Tatarstan, with suspicions that Iran has provided both software and expertise to Russia.

Putin reiterated his ambition to annex Ukraine during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), stating, 'I have said many times that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one nation. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.' on June 20.

There are growing concerns among Europeans that Trump's strategy to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict may falter in the face of escalating Russian aggression.

Ukrainians believe that Trump's commitment towards Putin may lack consistency or strength. According to data from Statista, the EU and its institutions have allocated €52.1 billion in response to the Russian invasion from January 24 to 28, 2025, while the US has contributed €114 billion, the highest amount to date.

While the US and other NATO countries agreed to expedite Ukraine's NATO membership by July 2024, this commitment was notably absent from the NATO Summit in The Hague this year. Zelensky's reluctance to pursue the Minsk-I and II Agreements from September 2014 and February 2015 has made the prospect of ending the war appear increasingly 'remote.'

As per an agreement from a meeting in Istanbul on June 2, the process of exchanging prisoners of war is ongoing.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is optimistic about brokering peace by convening Putin, Zelensky, and Trump in Turkey.

Despite Russia proposing two options for a complete ceasefire, it failed to provide a peace settlement memorandum to Ukraine prior to the meeting, further prolonging negotiations. Additionally, Russia dismissed Ukraine's request for a 90-day ceasefire.

The strained diplomatic relations between the US and EU member states have been somewhat alleviated due to the situation in Ukraine.

Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU has faced delays, particularly with Trump returning to the presidency after Joe Biden. A key demand from Putin is that NATO must revert to its pre-1990s position, away from Russia's borders.

Russia is resolute in its opposition to NATO's eastward expansion.

The Trump administration has been accommodating towards Russia's position in Ukraine, and Putin's Russia appears to favor Trump's return to the White House.

(The author is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia, previously associated with the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal.)