Synopsis
A team of Australian researchers has found that a 4-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures could lead to a 40% reduction in world GDP by 2100, significantly higher than previous estimates. This research calls for urgent climate action to mitigate economic risks associated with climate change.Key Takeaways
- A 4°C rise in temperatures could cut GDP by 40%.
- New models challenge previous economic forecasts.
- Limiting warming to 1.7°C is crucial for economic stability.
- Supply chain disruptions will exacerbate economic impacts.
- All nations are vulnerable to climate change effects.
New Delhi, April 1 (NationPress) A group of researchers from Australia announced on Tuesday that a rise of 4 degrees Celsius in global temperatures could lead to a reduction of approximately 40 percent in the world GDP by the year 2100 – a considerable increase from earlier projections of about 11 percent.
New insights from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Institute for Climate Risk and Response (ICRR), published in the journal Environmental Research, address a critical oversight in the existing economic models that guide global climate policy, thereby challenging prior carbon benchmarks.
The findings suggest that limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius is essential, aligning with more aggressive decarbonization targets like those outlined in the Paris Agreement, and significantly lower than the 2.7 degrees Celsius suggested by previous models.
Lead researcher Dr. Timothy Neal, a ‘Scientia Senior Lecturer’ in the School of Economics and part of the ICRR, noted, “Economists have typically relied on historical data that compares weather fluctuations to economic growth to estimate climate-related damages.”
However, he pointed out that disruptions to the global supply chains, which currently mitigate economic shocks, are often overlooked.
Dr. Neal added, “In a hotter future, we can anticipate cascading disruptions in supply chains caused by extreme weather events worldwide.”
He further emphasized that the economic rationale for more robust climate action is evident. “Previous economic models have unwittingly suggested that even severe climate change wouldn't be detrimental to the economy, leading to significant implications for climate policy,” he stated.
The local-only damage models have influenced economic predictions that shape the climate policies of major nations and have been pivotal in international agreements.
This revised projection should highlight to all nations their susceptibility to climate change. “There’s a misconception that certain cooler countries, like Russia or Canada, will benefit from climate change, but supply chain dependencies indicate that no country is exempt,” Dr. Neal stressed.
Nevertheless, he acknowledged that further research is necessary as “this study does not consider climate adaptation measures, such as human migration, which are politically and logistically complex and not yet fully modeled,” according to the study.
