Gold rises 0.19% this week on geopolitical tensions, import duty weighs
Synopsis
Gold posted a modest 0.19% weekly gain, but the real story is structural: India's gold import duty has hit 15% — the steepest hike on record — and the World Gold Council projects demand to fall 50–60 tonnes this year. Meanwhile, US–Iran diplomacy and a 5%-plus 30-year Treasury yield are pulling bullion in opposite directions, making this a market caught between geopolitical fear and macro headwinds.
Key Takeaways
MCX gold June futures settled at ₹1,58,588 , up 0.19% for the week ended 23 May .
MCX silver May futures stood at ₹2,71,600 per kg ; both contracts dipped slightly on Friday.
COMEX gold stabilised near $4,535 , supported by Strait of Hormuz tensions despite easing US–Iran negotiation fears.
India's gold import duty was raised from 6% to 15% — the largest hike on record — reversing the July 2024 cut.
India's gold demand is forecast to drop 10% YoY , or 50–60 tonnes , in CY26 , per the World Gold Council .
US 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and 10-year yields above 4.5% pose a near-term headwind for non-yielding assets.
Gold prices gained 0.19% over the week ended 23 May, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and sharp swings in crude oil prices, even as domestic bullion faced headwinds from a strengthening rupee and elevated US bond yields.
Weekly Price Movement
MCX gold June futures dipped 0.06% on Friday, settling at ₹1,58,588, while MCX silver May futures slipped 0.09% to ₹2,71,600 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Spot gold for 24-carat, 10-gram units was quoted at ₹1,58,117 on Friday, up from ₹1,57,821 at Monday's market open, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
What Drove the Week's Moves
On the international front, COMEX gold stabilised near $4,535 towards the weekend, with analysts noting that reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations eased safe-haven buying pressure on precious metals. However, unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to provide near-term support. Positive signals from ongoing US–Iran proposal discussions are helping COMEX gold hold a support zone near $4,500, though uncertainty over the final outcome is keeping volatility elevated, an analyst said.
On the domestic side, a sharp appreciation in the rupee added downward pressure on bullion prices, partially offsetting global gains for Indian buyers.
Bond Yields and Fed Rate Risk
Rising US Treasury yields represent a significant headwind for gold and silver in the near term. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries is holding above 5%, while the 10-year note ended the week above 4.5%. Higher bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Analysts warn that sustained yield pressure could prompt the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by CY26 end, further dampening precious metals' appeal.
Import Duty Hike Clouds India Demand Outlook
India's gold demand is expected to fall 10% year-on-year, or by 50–60 tonnes, in CY26, following a steep hike in the gold import duty, according to a report by the World Gold Council. The duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15% — the single-largest increase on record — fully reversing the duty reduction of July 2024. This structural demand compression is likely to weigh on domestic price premiums over the medium term.
What to Watch
Going forward, gold's trajectory will hinge on the outcome of US–Iran negotiations, movements in the dollar index, and rupee volatility. A resolution in the Middle East could remove a key pillar of safe-haven support, while any deterioration would likely push prices higher. The interplay between Fed policy signals and Treasury yields will be equally critical for global precious metals direction.
Point of View
And if the Fed follows through with a late-CY26 rate hike, the 'fear trade' may not be enough to sustain current levels. More consequentially for India, the 15% import duty hike is a demand shock that the market has not fully priced in: a 50–60 tonne annual demand drop is not a rounding error in a country that is historically the world's second-largest gold consumer. Domestic jewellers and importers will feel the squeeze well before global macro resolves.
NationPress
14 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices rise this week?
Gold rose 0.19% for the week ended 23 May, driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty — particularly unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — and sharp movements in crude oil prices. Progress in US–Iran negotiations capped the upside, while a stronger rupee added domestic price pressure.
What are MCX gold and silver prices currently?
As of Friday, 23 May, MCX gold June futures stood at ₹1,58,588, while MCX silver May futures were at ₹2,71,600 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange. Spot 24-carat gold for 10 grams was quoted at ₹1,58,117, according to IBJA data.
How does the India gold import duty hike affect prices?
The gold import duty was raised from 6% to 15% — the single-largest hike on record — fully reversing the July 2024 duty cut. The World Gold Council projects this will reduce India's gold demand by 10% year-on-year, or 50–60 tonnes, in CY26, likely widening the gap between international and domestic prices.
What role are US bond yields playing in gold's outlook?
Rising US Treasury yields are a headwind for gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The 30-year US Treasury yield is above 5% and the 10-year yield ended the week above 4.5%, with analysts warning that sustained pressure could push the Fed toward a rate hike by CY26 end.
What factors will drive gold prices going forward?
Gold's near-term direction will depend on the outcome of US–Iran negotiations, movements in the dollar index, and rupee volatility. A diplomatic resolution in the Middle East could remove a key safe-haven pillar, while further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would likely support prices.
