New Delhi, April 15 (NationPress) Indian healthcare firms are projected to achieve a high single-digit revenue growth (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of FY26 (Q4 FY26), according to a report released on Wednesday.

However, the report from Systematix indicates that EBITDA margins are expected to face significant corrections.

The median revenue growth is forecasted at 12 percent, while EBITDA growth is estimated at 3.6 percent, with net earnings anticipated to experience a 14 percent decline, as mentioned in the report.

The decline in net earnings is primarily attributed to the loss of exclusivity for gRevlimid, which will notably affect companies like Dr. Reddy’s, Zydus, Cipla, and Sun Pharma.

Additionally, Cipla may encounter challenges due to disruptions in the supply of Lanreotide, according to the report.

Lupin and Zydus may also face margin pressures due to settlements related to mirabegron royalty payments, as noted in the findings.

This quarter is likely to reflect mixed repercussions from the US–Iran conflict, as escalated freight and raw material costs could counterbalance the favorable effects of USD/INR appreciation.

Should the conflict continue, these cost pressures might worsen in future quarters. Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturers are likely to transfer the raw material inflation to consumers, potentially leading to price hikes as formulation manufacturers seek to expand their raw material inventories.

Dr. Reddy’s could experience the most pronounced earnings drop due to the substantial contribution of gRevlimid to its profits, which is expected to decline significantly.

Any adjustments in shelf stock related to gRevlimid could further impact the company’s earnings, as mentioned in the report.

Simultaneously, India’s drug regulators are increasing scrutiny of rapidly growing weight-loss and diabetes treatments, particularly GLP-1 receptor agonists, amid heightened demand and the expected arrival of more affordable generic alternatives in the domestic market.

This initiative is spearheaded by the Indian Pharmacopoeia Commission (IPC) under the Ministry of Health, which has been assigned to systematically gather and evaluate adverse event reports associated with these medications.

The goal is to enhance post-marketing surveillance and swiftly address any safety concerns that may arise.

Officials have indicated that this step is part of a broader regulatory effort to keep pace with the swift adoption of these therapies, especially as affordability increases.