How Do Global Brokerages View the India-US Trade Agreement?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
Mumbai, Feb 3 (NationPress) On Tuesday, both global and Indian brokerages expressed strong approval of the India–US trade deal, labeling it a significant boost for India's economy, corporate earnings, and the sentiment surrounding foreign investments. This enthusiastic endorsement from financial analysts was evident in the stock market, with the Sensex surging over 4,200 points during intraday trading, reaching a historic peak of 85,871.73.
Experts in brokerage firms believe that the decreased reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports to the US will alleviate pressure on India's external financial situation and enhance growth prospects.
Goldman Sachs projected that the reduced tariffs could help decrease India's current account deficit by approximately 0.25 percent of GDP by 2026, lowering it to about 0.8 percent.
The firm anticipates that capital inflows will start to recover once the deal is fully enacted, which could bolster the rupee and lessen risks to its dollar-rupee forecast.
Goldman Sachs further indicated that the Reserve Bank of India is likely nearing the conclusion of its rate-cutting cycle and may maintain the repo rate at 5.25 percent through 2026.
It also pointed out that the trade agreement positions India more favorably compared to other Asian emerging markets regarding export competitiveness.
Bernstein noted that the improved sentiment surrounding India presents an opportune moment for investors to enter the market, despite recent softness in corporate earnings.
Nomura emphasized the expected revival of foreign investment in India, predicting a gradual return of both foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows and foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments following a lackluster FY26.
The brokerage forecasts a balance of payments surplus of around $7 billion in FY27, highlighting that the tariff reduction to 18 percent will alleviate margin pressures in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and manufacturing.
BofA Securities commented that India’s opening up of markets to additional US products could result in increased technology imports and promote long-term US investments in the nation.
Despite some depreciation of the rupee, it added that the effects of the new tariff structure would be minimal.
According to its estimates, when accounting for existing US tariffs on goods such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles, India’s effective tariff rate could drop to approximately 12–13 percent, down from nearly 30–35 percent.
Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal stated that the market will now shift its focus toward the improving trend in corporate earnings.
Antique Stock Broking described the agreement as extremely favorable for Indian equities, noting that the key advantage would be the anticipated return of foreign investors, a major concern in the past year.
Based on this outlook, Antique has set a Nifty 50 target of 29,500 by March 2027, favoring sectors such as financials, capital goods, defense, and consumer-oriented stocks.