Synopsis
A recent SBI Research report estimates a 7.6% GDP growth for Q4 FY25, based on the government's 6.5% growth estimate for fiscal 2025. With agriculture and manufacturing driving growth, India shows signs of economic resilience.Key Takeaways
- SBI Research estimates 7.6% GDP growth for Q4 FY25.
- Real GDP growth rate for 2023-24 is 9.2%.
- India's economy shows resilience with a 6.2% growth in Q3 FY25.
- Significant growth in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
- Per capita GDP expected to reach Rs 2.35 lakh in FY25.
New Delhi, March 1 (NationPress) A report by SBI Research published on Saturday indicates that the government's GDP growth estimate for fiscal year 2025 is 6.5 percent, leading to a derived growth of 7.6 percent for Q4. The report also states, “we anticipate revisions to quarterly figures in May 2025”.
Additionally, the real GDP growth rate for 2023-24 is projected at 9.2 percent, marking the highest rate in the last 12 years, excluding FY22's growth of 9.7 percent, which is the highest since independence.
Demonstrating resilience in the nation’s efforts to achieve comprehensive growth, India recorded a GDP growth of 6.2 percent in Q3 FY25, rebounding from a decline to 5.6 percent in Q2 FY25.
The substantial growth in agriculture and industry, particularly in manufacturing, contributed to a 6.2 percent increase in gross value added (GVA) in Q3 FY25, compared to 5.8 percent in Q2 FY25.
Revisions to real GDP growth for FY23 and FY24 have been adjusted upwards by 62 basis points and 104 basis points respectively, reflecting changes in both yearly and quarterly growth figures.
Significant adjustments have also occurred in the quarterly numbers for FY24, with growth rates for the quarters revised upwards: 142 basis points to 9.7 percent in Q1, 126 basis points to 9.3 percent in Q2, 94 basis points to 9.5 percent in Q3, and 60 basis points to 8.4 percent in Q4.
For the current fiscal year, while the Q1 figures have been adjusted downwards by 13 basis points to 6.5 percent, the Q2 figures have been revised upwards by 22 basis points to 5.6 percent.
The SBI report notes that “the positive trend in revisions reflects well on economic resilience”.
Structurally, agriculture and allied sectors demonstrated a healthy growth of 5.6 percent in Q3 FY25, driven by strong Kharif crop production due to favorable monsoon conditions and effective synchronization in the farm-allied sector, which is enhancing sustainable income for farmers.
The industrial sector also witnessed a recovery, growing by 4.5 percent in Q3 FY25 (up from 3.8 percent in Q2 FY25), supported by a significant growth in manufacturing at 3.5 percent.
Both the electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services, along with mining and quarrying, saw growth rates of 5.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively.
Thanks to improved policy-making and effective benefit leakage prevention through DBT, the per capita GDP at current prices is estimated to be Rs 2.35 lakh in FY25, with a decadal CAGR growth of 9.1 percent. Remarkably, in the last two fiscal years, the per capita GDP has increased by over Rs 40,000 at current prices.
