India's imports of Russian crude oil dropped 13 per cent in September 2026, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the lowest intake since April 2026, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Rising crude prices — driven by the escalating Middle East conflict that has choked both the Red Sea trade route and the Strait of Hormuz — were cited as the primary cause.

Refinery-Level Declines

The drop was broad-based across India's major refining hubs. Imports at the Reliance-operated Jamnagar refinery fell by 27 per cent, while Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)'s Paradip refinery recorded a 21 per cent decline. Nayara Energy's Vadinar facility saw a comparatively smaller dip of 8 per cent. The steeper falls at Jamnagar and Paradip suggest larger refiners are recalibrating their sourcing mix as Urals-grade economics shift.

India Still Russia's Second-Largest Buyer

Despite the pullback, India remained Russia's second-largest fossil fuel buyer in September, importing 4.1 billion euros worth of Russian hydrocarbons, with 88 per cent comprising crude oil. Only China purchased more. Since December 2022, India has absorbed 37 per cent of Russia's crude exports, compared with China's 50 per cent, according to CREA data. The figures underscore how structurally embedded Russian crude has become in India's energy supply chain, even as monthly volumes fluctuate.

Urals Price Surge and the EU Price Cap

In September 2026, the average price of Russia's Urals-grade crude surged 32 per cent month-on-month to USD 90.7 per barrel — the highest monthly average since April 2026 and more than double the EU and UK price cap of USD 44.1 per barrel. That cap took effect on 1 February 2026 and has been held at the same level under the EU's 21st sanctions package. Global fossil fuel prices remained elevated in September despite a more than 60 per cent month-on-month increase in oil volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, based on detected vessel crossings — though those volumes remained well below pre-strike levels.

Trump's Sanctions Waiver Offers Temporary Relief

In a significant development, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order waiving many sanctions and tariffs tied to Russian oil exports, a move that came one day before they were set to take effect under a bill he had signed the previous month. Trump stated the waiver was in the United States' 'national interest.' The order is expected to allow India and China to continue importing Russian oil at current volumes without fresh legal exposure.

Iran Strikes Boost Russia's Revenue

The Hormuz energy crisis has delivered a windfall for Moscow. CREA estimates that in the six months since the US–Israel strikes on Iran began, elevated oil and gas prices have increased Russia's seaborne export revenues by an estimated USD 35.9 billion (approximately EUR 31 billion). Russia's fossil fuel export base remains highly concentrated: China dominates coal and crude oil purchases, Turkiye leads in oil products, and the European Union remains the largest buyer of LNG and pipeline gas — a dependence on a narrow customer set that carries its own strategic risks for Moscow, according to CREA. With Trump's waiver buying short-term breathing room, the trajectory of Indian crude sourcing will hinge on whether Hormuz volumes recover and how long elevated Urals prices persist.