Synopsis
A recent report forecasts promising growth for Nifty and Sensex in FY26, with expected annualized returns of 8-10% and 8-12%, respectively. Strong domestic companies and positive tourism trends contribute to this optimistic outlook.Key Takeaways
- Nifty expected returns: 8–10 percent in FY26
- Sensex projected returns: 8–12 percent
- Large-cap private banks to see 14–16 percent credit growth
- Religious tourism to grow by 10–12 percent
- Infrastructure investments enhancing connectivity
Bengaluru, March 31 (NationPress) The benchmark index Nifty is projected to deliver an annualised return of 8–10 percent in the upcoming fiscal year (FY26), while Sensex is anticipated to yield a return of 8–12 percent, as stated in a recent report.
Companies focused on the domestic market are strategically positioned to navigate risks such as US tariff increases or commodity price inflation.
Large-cap private banks are expected to experience a credit growth of 14–16 percent in FY26. The benchmark indices have increased by approximately 7 percent in FY25, according to the report from GoalFi, a smallcase manager.
The report forecasts a growth of 12–16 percent from current levels by March 2026, leading to a potential annualised return range of 8–10 percent over the next 12 months from March 25, 2025.
These projections are based on an anticipated 12–15 percent corporate earnings growth rate and a forward PE multiple of 19–21x FY26 earnings. The expected upside for Sensex is 14–18 percent, suggesting an annualised return of 8–12 percent for the same timeframe.
According to Robin Arya, Founder and CEO of GoalFi, the potential upside for Nifty and Sensex signals a positive outlook, fueled by strong earnings growth.
A mix of global and local factors, along with the resurgence of FII flows, will contribute to enhanced growth, he noted.
Religious tourism is set to be a significant area to observe. There are over 300 million domestic pilgrims annually (pre-COVID), with an expected increase of 10–12 percent.
The medical tourism sector is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 18–20 percent, potentially reaching a $13–15 billion market by 2026.
Infrastructure investments, including the addition of 100 new airports by 2030 and a 8–10 percent annual road expansion, will improve connectivity and provide substantial support, the report indicates.
Rural demand is expected to rise by 5–7 percent year-on-year, while urban spending is projected to increase by 6–8 percent.
The capital expenditure cycle is predicted to see a significant uptick, with private capex estimated to grow by 12–14 percent year-on-year, while government infrastructure spending is expected to reach Rs 11-12 lakh crore.
The report predicts a 15–20 percent revenue growth across the hospitality, travel, and infrastructure sectors within tourism.
