Global Smartphone Shipments Projected to Drop in 2026 Due to Memory Shortages
Synopsis
Amid a critical memory supply shortage, global smartphone shipments experienced modest growth in 2025 but are projected to plummet in 2026. This shift highlights the vulnerabilities in the market, with lower-end devices expected to suffer the most during this downturn.
Key Takeaways
2025 saw low single-digit growth in smartphone shipments.
Q4 2025 experienced a 3.8% growth, the best since 2021.
In 2026, shipments are expected to decline by 12.4% .
Lower-end devices will face the most significant challenges.
Premium brands are likely to remain resilient amid the downturn.
New Delhi, Feb 27 (NationPress) The global smartphone market is grappling with a significant memory supply shortage, leading to a modest year-on-year growth of low single digits for shipments by the end of 2025, as indicated by a recent report. This growth is attributed to improved macroeconomic conditions and robust demand during the holiday season.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, global smartphone shipments experienced a 3.8% growth, marking the strongest holiday season since 2021 and extending the market's recovery for four consecutive quarters, with most regions showing year-on-year growth except for China and Eastern Europe.
However, a significant downturn is anticipated in 2026, with Counterpoint Research forecasting a 12.4% decline in shipments year-on-year, which would represent the steepest annual contraction to date.
The report indicates that ongoing memory shortages, along with soaring component prices and inherent weaknesses among lower-end OEMs, will not only depress 2026 figures but may also prolong the downturn into 2027. A recovery is expected only towards the end of 2027 when additional memory capacity becomes available.
“The repercussions are likely to persist through the second half of 2027, as it will take several quarters for memory supply to stabilize. Lower-end smartphones are expected to face the greatest challenges, particularly as LPDDR4 supply is diminishing more rapidly than anticipated,” stated Principal Analyst Yang Wang.
OEMs are already adapting by delaying product launches, simplifying their portfolios, and making trade-offs in specifications. A price hike of 10% to 20% has also been observed across certain Android OEM portfolios as of January 2026.
This downturn is driven by significant structural imbalances within the memory supply chain, with manufacturers redirecting wafer capacity toward higher-margin AI-focused DRAM and enterprise SSD NAND.
Not all segments will experience the same impact, as premium smartphones are expected to remain more resilient compared to the mass market, which is likely to see growth in single digits, while the sub-$200 price range could face declines exceeding 20%, according to the report.
“Apple and Samsung are anticipated to navigate these challenges more effectively due to their superior supply chain integration, increased pricing power, and ongoing premiumization strategies,” the report concluded.
Point of View
It is crucial to highlight the significant challenges facing the smartphone industry. The anticipated decline in shipments due to memory shortages could reshape market dynamics, with premium brands likely to fare better than their budget counterparts. This situation warrants close monitoring as it evolves.
NationPress
3 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the decline in smartphone shipments?
The decline is primarily due to a severe supply-driven memory crunch impacting production, along with rising component prices and vulnerabilities among lower-end manufacturers.
How much is the smartphone market expected to decline in 2026?
The market is forecasted to decline by approximately 12.4% year-on-year in 2026, marking the sharpest contraction ever recorded.
Which segments are most affected by this downturn?
Lower-end smartphones are likely to be the most affected, particularly those priced under $200, which may see declines exceeding 20%.
Will premium smartphone brands be impacted?
Premium brands like Apple and Samsung are expected to weather the downturn more effectively due to better supply chain integration and pricing power.
When can we expect a recovery in the smartphone market?
A recovery is anticipated towards late 2027 as additional memory capacity comes online and supply issues begin to stabilize.
