SoftBank stock plunges 13% on OpenAI IPO delay fears
Synopsis
SoftBank's 13% single-session crash on the Tokyo Stock Exchange lays bare just how much of the conglomerate's re-rating was riding on a near-term OpenAI IPO. With advisers reportedly flagging tech-market volatility as a deterrent and the listing potentially slipping into next year, SoftBank's $65 billion AI bet remains locked in valuation limbo — and its premium over Toyota could quickly unwind.
Key Takeaways
SoftBank Group shares fell 13 per cent on the Tokyo Stock Exchange — its sharpest intraday drop in more than three months.
The trigger: reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO , potentially into next year, due to tech-sector volatility.
SoftBank is expected to hold around $65 billion in OpenAI by October .
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has filed confidential IPO paperwork with the US SEC ; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly advising on the listing.
Expectations of a near-term OpenAI listing had previously lifted SoftBank 's market cap above that of Toyota Motor Corp .
SoftBank Group shares listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) tumbled 13 per cent on reports that OpenAI may delay its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO), stoking fresh concerns about the timing of returns on the Japanese conglomerate's outsized bet on artificial intelligence. The sell-off, according to multiple reports, marked SoftBank's steepest intraday decline in more than three months.
What Triggered the Sell-Off
Advisers to OpenAI have reportedly cautioned that persistent volatility in global technology stocks could suppress investor appetite for a public listing, potentially pushing the IPO into next year. That warning was enough to unnerve SoftBank investors who had priced in a near-term listing as a near-certain catalyst for value unlock.
The conglomerate is expected to hold an investment of approximately $65 billion in the ChatGPT maker by October, making OpenAI one of its single largest positions. Any delay in a public listing directly delays the moment when that stake acquires a transparent, market-determined valuation.
Why the OpenAI IPO Matters for SoftBank
Expectations of an imminent OpenAI listing had powered a sustained rally in SoftBank shares over recent months, helping the group's market capitalisation overtake that of Toyota Motor Corp — a milestone that underscored just how much of SoftBank's re-rating was premised on the AI trade.
A public listing of OpenAI is widely regarded as a structural catalyst for SoftBank because it would provide a verifiable market valuation for one of its most significant holdings and make it considerably easier for investors to assess the worth of the group's broader portfolio of privately held technology companies. Market participants believe such a listing could also narrow the chronic valuation discount at which SoftBank shares have historically traded, by reducing uncertainty over its investment holdings.
Where OpenAI's IPO Plans Stand
OpenAI, led by Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman, recently filed confidential paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a public offering. The company is reportedly working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as underwriters on a potential listing, though the precise timeline remains uncertain.
Notably, the confidential filing signals that the IPO process is structurally underway — but advisers' concerns about tech-sector volatility suggest the window for a favourable debut may be narrowing.
Broader Market Context
The SoftBank rout is the latest sign that investor sentiment around AI-linked equities remains fragile and highly sensitive to news flow. This is not the first time that SoftBank's stock has swung sharply on developments at a single portfolio company — the group's fortunes have long tracked those of its marquee bets, from Alibaba to WeWork. A delay in the OpenAI IPO would extend the period during which SoftBank's largest AI investment remains opaque to public markets, sustaining the discount that investors have long applied to its holding company structure.
How OpenAI's listing timeline resolves — and whether tech market conditions stabilise — will be the defining variable for SoftBank's share price trajectory in the months ahead.
Point of View
So did the stock. More troubling is the structural problem this exposes — SoftBank's discount to net asset value has historically been a function of opacity, and an OpenAI listing delay extends that opacity by at least another year. For investors, the question is no longer just 'when does OpenAI list?' but 'how much of SoftBank's premium was purely sentiment-driven?' The answer, judging by Thursday's move, appears to be: quite a lot.
NationPress
26 Jun 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SoftBank shares fall 13 per cent?
SoftBank shares fell 13 per cent on the Tokyo Stock Exchange after reports emerged that OpenAI may delay its IPO, potentially into next year, due to continued volatility in technology stocks. The sell-off marked SoftBank's steepest intraday decline in more than three months, as investors had priced in a near-term listing as a key value catalyst.
How much has SoftBank invested in OpenAI?
SoftBank is expected to hold an investment of approximately $65 billion in OpenAI by October, making it one of the conglomerate's largest single positions. A delay in OpenAI's IPO means that stake remains without a transparent, market-determined valuation.
What is the current status of OpenAI's IPO?
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has filed confidential paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a public offering. The company is reportedly working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as underwriters, but advisers have cautioned that tech-market volatility could push the listing into next year.
Why does an OpenAI IPO matter so much to SoftBank?
A public listing of OpenAI would provide a transparent market valuation for one of SoftBank's largest holdings, making it easier for investors to assess the group's broader portfolio of privately held technology companies. It is also expected to narrow the valuation discount at which SoftBank shares have historically traded.
How had OpenAI IPO expectations affected SoftBank before this fall?
Anticipation of a near-term OpenAI listing had fuelled a sustained rally in SoftBank shares in recent months, helping the group's market capitalisation surpass that of Toyota Motor Corp. Thursday's 13 per cent drop signals that much of that gain was premised on the IPO arriving on schedule.
