New Delhi, April 14 (NationPress) As the US military initiates its blockade of Iranian ports, it is anticipated that approximately two million barrels of Iranian oil each day will be excluded from global markets. This restriction is likely to exacerbate supply constraints and drive up petroleum product prices, as reported by industry analysts.

A total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could also disrupt LPG supplies to India. Over the past month, India successfully navigated at least eight LPG tankers through the strait, according to Bineet Banka, an analyst at Nomura.

US President Donald Trump has declared that no vessels will be permitted to pay Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Although India has not incurred any tolls for its LPG shipments recently, the evolving situation warrants attention.

Nomura's analysis suggests that as the conflict persists, reliance on Strategic Petroleum Reserves to offset lost supplies may diminish, potentially resulting in increased oil prices.

In the meantime, reports indicate that the US and Iran are contemplating another round of discussions following a stalemate in negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, led by US Vice President JD Vance. Consequently, crude oil prices reached $107 per barrel on Monday, before retreating to under $100 per barrel on Tuesday, fueled by renewed optimism regarding negotiations.

Over the past week, Brent crude oil prices have climbed by 6.5%, now nearing $98 per barrel. Given the lack of fruitful outcomes from the recent peace talks, Nomura foresees a heightened risk premium affecting oil prices.

With President Trump now threatening a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for all incoming and outgoing vessels, Nomura predicts further deterioration in the oil supply situation.

According to Nomura, the recent surge in oil prices has more than offset the decline in Saudi Arabia's export volumes, leading to a 4% year-on-year increase in oil revenues in March. Reports indicate Saudi Arabia has reached full oil flow capacity of 7 million barrels per day via its East-West pipeline, which circumvents the Strait of Hormuz and connects to the Red Sea.

Nomura estimates that if 2 million barrels per day are utilized by refineries along the western coast, higher export volumes from Saudi Arabia could be anticipated (5 million barrels per day), surpassing the 4.4 million barrels per day achieved in March 2026. The UAE also performed relatively well compared to other Gulf nations, experiencing a minor 3% year-on-year decline in oil revenues.

According to Banka's assessments, Iran has emerged as the largest recipient of increased oil revenues since the war erupted, with a remarkable 36% year-on-year growth in March 2026, totaling $5.7 billion.