What Factors Shape Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine?

Washington, Sep 9 (NationPress) Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is influenced by religious nationalism, military dominance, and geopolitical insecurity, according to a report released on Tuesday. The military elite of Pakistan has long positioned itself as the “guardians” of the nation’s borders and its Islamic identity.

In order to balance its asymmetry with India in terms of size, population, and economic might, Pakistan has embraced asymmetric warfare and formed strategic alliances, the Washington-based think tank Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) highlighted in its findings. The development of nuclear weapons has become a significant equalizer, enabling Pakistan to challenge India’s conventional military superiority, serving not just as deterrents but also as symbols of identity, defiance, and power.

According to the report, “Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is shaped not by strategic restraint, but by a volatile combination of religious nationalism, military dominance, and geopolitical insecurity. The military elite has consistently portrayed themselves as the ‘guardians’ of both national borders and Islamic identity. This portrayal has marginalized civilian institutions and solidified a military-mosque nexus that has altered Pakistan's national narrative, shifting from a desire to be ‘non-Indian’ to an aggressively ‘anti-Indian’ stance. This ideological transformation has confined the state and its populace into a state of perpetual hostility,” the report asserted.

Current estimates suggest that Pakistan possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads, with projections indicating a rise to 200. Its focus on tactical nuclear weapons and ambiguous red lines has fostered a precariously unstable environment where miscalculations could lead to catastrophe. The report noted that China has played a foundational and ongoing role in Pakistan's nuclear development, evolving from covert military support in the late 1960s to explicit civil nuclear collaboration in more recent years.

While India's nuclear doctrine is steeped in restraint, emphasizing a clear no-first-use policy and a commitment to deterrence rather than warfighting, Pakistan has adopted a contrasting approach marked by ambiguity and escalation. The MEMRI report states that Pakistan has rejected the no-first-use doctrine and has embraced a ‘full spectrum deterrence’ strategy that encompasses strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

The report further indicated that the United States has “naively contributed” to Pakistan's nuclear advancements without a full appreciation of the long-term ramifications. Successive US administrations have prioritized short-term strategic interests over enduring security while publicly advocating for non-proliferation.

“Pakistan's nuclear trajectory, driven by ideological nationalism, facilitated by China, and underestimated by the United States, has culminated in a uniquely dangerous and volatile situation. What commenced as a strategic hedge against conventional inferiority has transformed into a doctrine characterized by ambiguity, escalation, and brinkmanship. The military leadership in Pakistan, emboldened by its unchecked influence over civilian institutions and its self-styled role as the guardian of Islamic identity, has demonstrated a troubling readiness to leverage nuclear threats not as a last resort but as instruments of political manipulation and psychological warfare. Such behavior is not merely irresponsible; it is profoundly destabilizing,” the report concluded.

“The foundational tenets of nuclear deterrence, which hinge on restraint, clarity, and mutual vulnerability, are actively being undermined. Pakistan's dismissal of a no-first-use policy, its investment in tactical nuclear capabilities, and its imprecise red lines have lowered the threshold for nuclear engagement and heightened the risk of miscalculation. The military's close affiliations with extremist factions and its historical context of proliferation amplify the threat, raising valid concerns regarding the security and integrity of its nuclear arsenal,” the MEMRI report emphasized.