Recent Research Indicates Rapid Temperature Rise on Tibetan Plateau
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Synopsis
Chinese researchers report that the Tibetan Plateau will likely experience significant warming over the next decade, potentially impacting glaciers, water security, and regional ecology, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
Key Takeaways
- The Tibetan Plateau is set for accelerated warming.
- Temperature rises of up to 0.98°C expected by 2032.
- Impact on glaciers with a potential volume decrease of 1.4%.
- Climate variability includes influences like PDO and NPGO.
- Published in Science Bulletin, highlighting climate predictability.
Beijing, April 11 (NationPress) Researchers from China have indicated that the Tibetan Plateau is projected to undergo a rapid warming trend in the next decade, as reported by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Traditional climate models often focus on long-term patterns; however, the temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau for the upcoming ten years remain highly unpredictable due to significant internal climate variability.
This recent research employs decadal climate prediction, a novel approach that integrates the initial conditions of the climate system with external influences, which enhances the accuracy of regional climate forecasts.
The IAP team evaluated sophisticated international decadal prediction systems to determine the predictability of temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau.
Their results suggest that from 2025 to 2032, the annual average temperature in the region is expected to increase by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 average. This rate of warming is 1.75 times quicker than the increase recorded from 2016 to 2023.
By utilizing the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the researchers simulated the effects of this accelerated warming on the glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau. The findings indicate that such warming could decrease glacier volume by around 1.4 percent, leading to increased melt rates that jeopardize water security for millions across Asia, according to Xinhua news agency. This significant loss may also disrupt regional ecological stability and trigger extensive climatic repercussions on a global scale.
The study further emphasizes that the decadal predictability of temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau is influenced not only by external elements like greenhouse gas levels but also by internal climate variability, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).
This research was published in the journal Science Bulletin.
