Measles Cases on the Rise in the US as Vaccination Rates Dwindle: Research

Synopsis

A recent study reveals that falling vaccination rates in the US may lead to a resurgence of measles, projecting a potential 851,300 cases over the next 25 years. If rates drop further, millions could be affected, emphasizing the critical need for high vaccination coverage to prevent outbreaks.

Key Takeaways

Measles resurgence predicted due to falling vaccination rates.
Current rates may lead to 851,300 cases in 25 years.
A 10% decline could mean 11.1 million cases.
A 50% drop could result in 51.2 million measles cases.
High vaccination coverage is essential to prevent outbreaks.

New Delhi, April 24 (NationPress) The United States is potentially facing a significant resurgence of measles cases as vaccination rates continue to decline in several states, as indicated by a recent study.

A group of researchers from Stanford, Baylor, Rice, and Texas universities utilized a simulation model to explore the importation and spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases across all 50 states in the nation, according to Xinhua news agency.

This model assessed different vaccination scenarios over a span of 25 years.

At present vaccination levels, the model forecasts that measles could regain its endemic status in the US, potentially leading to around 851,300 cases over the next quarter-century, as per the research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Should vaccination rates decrease by 10%, the study predicts the country might experience 11.1 million measles cases in the same timeframe.

A drastic reduction of 50% could result in 51.2 million measles cases, along with 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.

This research is particularly timely as vaccination rates in the US have been declining since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced by various factors such as policies (including a rise in personal belief exemptions from childhood vaccine schedules), misinformation, distrust, and other societal and individual-level issues. Furthermore, there is an ongoing debate regarding adjustments to the childhood vaccine schedule.

This growing anti-vaccine sentiment has coincided with an uptick in outbreaks and cases of vaccine-preventable diseases in the US. Since 2024, there has been a noticeable rise in measles outbreaks (including a significant one in West Texas), leading to a considerable number of pediatric hospitalizations.

The findings emphasize the necessity of maintaining high coverage in routine childhood vaccinations to avert a resurgence of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in the nation.

“At current state-level vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again; increasing vaccine coverage would prevent this,” the researchers stated.

“According to estimates from this modeling study, declining childhood vaccination rates will elevate the frequency and scale of outbreaks of previously eliminated vaccine-preventable infections, ultimately leading to their return to endemic levels,” the researchers added.