Will 2025 Continue the Trend of Above-Normal Rainfall?

Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Above-normal rainfall recorded at 108% of the long-term average.
- This marks the second consecutive year of above-normal rainfall.
- Climate change is a significant driver of changing rainfall patterns.
- Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent.
- Variability in rainfall remains a major characteristic of the monsoon season.
New Delhi, Oct 17 (NationPress) The recently concluded Southwest Monsoon has recorded above-normal rainfall, measuring 108 percent of the long-term average. Experts have indicated that this marks the second consecutive year within the past decade to experience such elevated levels of rainfall.
Over the past decade, starting from 2016, there have been five years with above-normal rainfall, two years with normal rainfall, and three years with below-normal rainfall. Experts assert that climate change plays a significant role in influencing higher rainfall levels.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizes rainfall as 'normal' when it falls between 96-104 percent of the long-term average, while rainfall exceeding 104 percent is classified as 'above-normal.' Despite this, the increasing variability of rainfall has remained a significant characteristic of the four-month monsoon season.
Among the 36 meteorological subdivisions in India, 19 subdivisions reported normal rainfall, accounting for 46 percent of the country's area. Twelve subdivisions experienced excess rainfall, covering 35 percent of the area, while two subdivisions recorded large excess rainfall, comprising 10 percent of the area.
Only three subdivisions faced deficient rainfall, covering 9 percent of the area. Out of India’s 727 districts, 328 observed normal rainfall this season, 186 experienced excess, and 67 reported large excess, while 134 districts faced a deficit and another 67 encountered severe shortfall.
Meteorologists highlight that the rainfall data over the years indicates a trend of heavy rainfall events. The data illustrates a noticeable upward trend in rainfall over the past twelve years.
“Monsoon seasons are no longer uniform. The last decade has shown a pattern of normal to above-normal rainfall, with the latter becoming increasingly prevalent. The intensification of monsoons is closely tied to global warming. Global warming has emerged as a major factor influencing the monsoon,” stated K.J. Ramesh, former Director General of the IMD.
“The impact of El Niño and La Niña has diminished during this era of global warming. Although the number of rainy days has decreased, the volume of rainfall has increased significantly. The daily amount of rainfall has seen substantial changes,” Ramesh further commented.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, noted that the behavior of monsoon systems has evolved dramatically, leading to altered rainfall patterns.
“We now observe that low-pressure areas remain over land for longer durations than average, maintaining their strength due to continuous moisture supply. Not only have extreme rainfall events escalated, but instances of cloudburst-like conditions have also increased, which was not the case previously,” he elaborated.