How is Afghan Trade Growing Despite Pakistan Route Closures?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Afghanistan's exports rose by 13% in October.
- India is the largest importer, taking 50% of exports.
- Afghanistan seeks to reduce imports while boosting exports.
- Total exports reached USD 1.1 billion in the first seven months of FY2025.
- Challenges include refugee return, drought, and trade route closures.
New Delhi, Nov 24 (NationPress) A report from the World Bank has revealed that Afghanistan's exports saw a remarkable increase of 13 percent in October compared to September, despite the closure of trading routes with Pakistan. Notably, India emerged as the largest importer, taking in 50 percent of Kabul's total exports during this period.
According to Tolo News on November 24, the Afghanistan Economic Monitor by the bank indicated that imports also rose by 2 percent in October, surpassing USD 1.1 billion.
The Afghan Ministry of Economy has stressed that enhancing exports while reducing imports are key goals of the nation’s economic strategy, with efforts ongoing to identify alternative trade routes to achieve these objectives, Tolo News reported.
The World Bank noted that total exports reached USD 1.1 billion in the first seven months of FY2025, marking a 10 percent increase from USD 0.96 billion during the same timeframe in FY2024. India has been identified as the primary export market for Afghanistan, accounting for 50 percent of monthly exports in October and 38.3 percent of cumulative exports.
Uzbekistan also increased its share to 6 percent in the first seven months of the fiscal year, while Pakistan, historically the top market, saw its share decline to 35.8 percent, with monthly exports halving in October. The report warns that ongoing border closures could further decrease this share.
The Afghanistan Economic Monitor is part of the Afghanistan Futures initiative by the World Bank, which aims to provide research, monitoring, and analytical insights regarding the Afghan economy and society. This program is designed to facilitate informed international policy discussions on how best to support the Afghan populace.
This report complements regular assessments of the private sector, household welfare, gender issues, and sectoral reports that contribute to the Afghanistan Development Update, a biannual flagship publication. It highlights that despite challenges at the Pakistan border, food shipments have been pivotal in driving export growth towards India and Uzbekistan.
It’s noteworthy that Afghanistan lacks a direct land route to India; traditionally, Kabul exported goods to Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. After border closures following violent clashes, Taliban leaders encouraged the business sector to seek alternative trade routes.
Recently, Ariana Afghan Airlines announced a reduction in cargo tariffs for shipments to and from India. Among the exports, food reached USD 238.4 million in October, marking an 8.6 percent Year-on-Year increase, indicative of strong regional demand, as noted in the World Bank Economic Monitor. Cumulatively, food exports surged by 22.4 percent in the first seven months of FY2025, solidifying their crucial role in Afghanistan’s export landscape.
However, Kabul faces significant hurdles this year, including the influx of refugees from Iran and Pakistan, severe droughts, recurring earthquakes, extended internet outages, and the temporary closure of trade routes with Pakistan.
The document further indicated that inflation reached an annual rate of 2.1 percent in September, with some months even reporting negative inflation. Additionally, the government's domestic revenue saw a 16 percent increase in the first seven months of the year, exceeding USD 2.3 billion. Taxes and customs duties remain the primary revenue sources.