Analysis: Was the Baku Climate Summit a Blend of Achievements and Challenges?

New Delhi, Dec 1 (NationPress) As the 2024 gathering of the UN Climate Change Conference -- referred to as COP29 -- concluded in Azerbaijan’s Baku, the first oil city situated by the Caspian Sea, close to 200 nations reached an agreement on a new unified quantified objective for climate finance.

The newly established finance aim is to mobilize $300 billion annually by 2035 -- a threefold increase from the current mandate of $100 billion -- to aid developing nations in tackling climate change, which necessitates a tenfold rise. Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, described this new finance target as an “insurance policy for humanity.”

The G77 group, comprising developing nations and China, firmly insisted on receiving $1.3 trillion by 2035 from historic polluters like the US and the European Union (EU).

The $300 billion target is not anticipated to be realized immediately but is aimed for 2035. Furthermore, there was a consensus on a framework for carbon markets that has been under development for nearly a decade.

In addition to India’s strong opposition to the climate finance arrangement, small island nations, vulnerable, and least-developed countries feel there is ongoing significant contention regarding issues such as the transition from fossil fuels.

They argue that the discussions were hindered by a lack of transparency and inclusivity, with crucial voices from vulnerable nations being marginalized -- a concerning reflection of the shortcomings in the global negotiation framework.

Without adequate funding, developing countries will be compelled to lower their mitigation ambitions in their 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This financing shortfall will also severely impact their capability to prepare for and respond to escalating losses and damages caused by climate disasters such as floods, storms, and heatwaves.

At COP26, the focus was on “phasing down” coal; at COP27, a historic Loss and Damage Fund was established; and COP28 resulted in a global accord to swiftly and justly transition away from all fossil fuels in energy systems, triple renewable energy production, and enhance climate resilience.

At COP29, the increase in commitments to climate finance, which was the most anticipated outcome, was built on significant advancements in global climate action achieved at COP27.

This finance agreement coincides with the deadline for stronger national climate plans (or NDCs) due from all nations next year. These new climate plans must encompass all greenhouse gases and all sectors to maintain the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit.

The two weeks of rigorous negotiations at COP29, which involved over 30,000 participants, including government officials, business leaders, and civil society representatives, concluded on November 24 with a mix of achievements and setbacks on pivotal issues.

Operationalizing carbon markets was a noteworthy accomplishment during the summit. After nearly ten years of effort, countries have reached an agreement on the final components that outline how carbon markets will function under the 2015 Paris Agreement, making country-to-country trading and a carbon crediting mechanism fully operational.

Regarding country-to-country trading (Article 6.2), COP29’s decision clarifies how nations will authorize the exchange of carbon credits and the operation of registries tracking this trade. There is now reassurance that environmental integrity will be maintained through upfront technical reviews in a transparent process.

On the first day of COP29, nations sanctioned standards for a centralized carbon market under the UN (Article 6.4 mechanism). This is promising news for developing countries, including India, which will benefit from new finance inflows. It is especially good news for least-developed countries, who will receive the necessary capacity-building support to establish a presence in the market.

This mechanism, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, is underpinned by mandatory assessments for projects against robust environmental and human rights protections, including safeguards ensuring that a project cannot proceed without explicit, informed consent from Indigenous peoples. It also allows anyone impacted by a project to appeal a decision or lodge a complaint.

Under the approved text on Article 6.4, there is a clear directive for the UN carbon market to align with scientific principles. It tasks the body with getting this market operational while considering the best available science in all future work.

Work on carbon markets will continue beyond Baku. The Supervisory Body tasked with establishing the new carbon crediting mechanism has been given an extensive to-do list by Parties until 2025 and will remain accountable to them.

Transparency in climate reporting: Major strides were made in Baku towards transparent climate reporting, which strengthens the evidence base for improving climate policies over time and aids in identifying financing needs and opportunities.

So far, 13 nations have submitted their first Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR) -- due from all nations by year’s end.

Countries including Andorra, Azerbaijan, the European Union, Germany, Guyana, Japan, Kazakhstan, Maldives, the Netherlands, Panama, Singapore, Spain, and Turkey have led the way in transparent climate reporting, setting a benchmark for others to emulate.

Moreover, all transparency negotiation items concluded favorably at COP29, with parties expressing gratitude for the timely completion of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) reporting tools, the technical training, and the support extended to developing countries for ETF reporting scheduled for 2024.

Mobilizing adaptation funds was another critical focus at COP29, resulting in several crucial outcomes. The COP decision regarding the least developed countries (LDCs) includes a provision for establishing a support program aimed at implementing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for LDCs. Discussions were extensive regarding the second five-year evaluation of progress in formulating and executing NAPs, which will continue in June 2025.

Is there still hope and apprehension regarding the effectiveness of the annual UN climate summit?

In response to the COP29 results, Mariana Paoli, Global Advocacy Lead at Christian Aid, remarked to IANS, “The process of submitting NDCs may appear bureaucratic, but it represents the world reconfiguring the entire global economy to transition away from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy. If successful, this will be one of humanity’s most remarkable collective achievements. However, the energy transition requires funding, and there is currently a significant imbalance with most of the global capital concentrated in the Global North and far less in the Global South. Due to the inadequate outcomes in Baku, there’s a real risk that the next round of NDCs from the Global South may lack the ambition they require. Developing nations need assurance of receiving reliable grants to finance new clean energy infrastructure and address the impacts of the climate crisis.”

Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, indicated that while the climate finance goal established in Baku was a necessary advancement, it fell short of fulfilling the Paris Agreement's objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. “It is crucial for COP30 in Brazil to enhance this goal. Both the financial amount and the delivery timeline need to be expedited. Ultimately, we need to see affluent countries reforming the international economic system to better assist developing nations in contributing to the global clean energy transition.”

Africa, the continent most impacted by climate change, receives a mere 2% of global climate finance, according to a UN report.

Harjeet Singh, a climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, explained why the COP29 deal should be discarded, stating that without adequate financing, developing nations will exhibit low mitigation ambitions in their updated national climate action plans for 2025. He stated, “The outcomes of COP29 in Baku starkly highlight the global community’s failure to confront the climate crisis with the seriousness it demands. By committing a mere $300 billion annually by 2035, far below the $1.3 trillion requested by developing nations, wealthier nations have prioritized short-term profits over long-term survival. This grossly insufficient funding not only undermines global net-zero targets but also jeopardizes the capacity of developing nations to address their urgent needs, risking the planet exceeding a catastrophic three degrees Celsius of warming.”

Additionally, he pointed out that COP29 did not provide a concrete strategy for phasing out oil, gas, and coal, despite developed countries continuing to expand fossil fuel extraction.

India does not accept the goal in its current form, as stated by the country’s negotiator Chandni Raina during the final COP29 plenary. “Developed nations leading a mobilization goal of a mere $300 billion to be reached only by 2035, which is nearly 11 years away and from a variety of sources, including private and multilateral, leaves a significant portion for developing countries to mobilize on their own. This goal is inadequate and too distant...we need a target of $1.3 trillion per year until 2030,” she asserted.

Activists and representatives from civil society are hopeful that Brazil, the host for COP30 in November 2025, will propose bold, transformative solutions, beginning with a renegotiated climate finance goal that reflects the magnitude of the challenge and ensures equity and justice.

(Vishal Gulati can be contacted at vishal.g@ians.in)