Adani Ports, Adani Power stay Bernstein top picks as Adani Group rebounds
Synopsis
Bernstein has handed Adani Ports a higher price target of ₹1,973 and kept Adani Power on 'Outperform', declaring the Adani Group operationally resilient after navigating both a short-seller assault and a US regulatory probe. The outlier is Adani Green, where demanding valuations and a 10 per cent EBITDA cut earn it a rare 'Underperform' — a split verdict that signals investors should not treat the Group's recovery as uniform across all its listed arms.
Key Takeaways
Bernstein retained 'Outperform' on Adani Ports , raising its target price to ₹1,973 per share from ₹1,880 .
Adani Ports' international port volumes grew 12 per cent in July , ahead of the earlier 10 per cent estimate.
Adani Power retained 'Outperform' with a target of ₹220 ; projected EBITDA rises to ₹3,02,594 million by FY28 .
Adani Green Energy kept at 'Underperform' ; target cut to ₹980 and FY27 EBITDA estimates trimmed by 10 per cent .
Share pledges across the Adani Group have nearly disappeared and leverage levels have declined, according to Bernstein.
Global brokerage Bernstein has reaffirmed its bullish outlook on Adani Ports and Adani Power, stating that the Adani Group has emerged from a turbulent period — marked by a high-profile short-seller attack and a US SEC-DoJ probe — with its execution capabilities and financial position intact. The assessments were part of Bernstein's latest sector review, released on 18 August.
Adani Ports: Higher Target, Stronger Volumes
Bernstein retained its 'Outperform' rating on Adani Ports and raised its target price to ₹1,973 per share, up from ₹1,880 previously. The revision reflects upgraded FY27 volume growth estimates, driven by strong performance from international port operations. July traffic data showed growth of 12 per cent, ahead of the earlier estimate of 10 per cent.
The brokerage also lifted its target EV/EBITDA multiple from 16 times to 16.5 times. Bernstein cited Adani Ports' strong pricing power, its expanding logistics footprint, and relatively attractive valuations compared with sector peers. The company's track record of acquiring and turning around underperforming assets was highlighted as a structural differentiator.
Adani Power: Outperform Retained on EBITDA Outlook
Bernstein also maintained its 'Outperform' rating on Adani Power, with a target price of ₹220 per share against a current market price of ₹203.56. The brokerage projects EBITDA of ₹2,41,272 million for FY27, rising to ₹3,02,594 million for FY28, reflecting confidence in the company's capacity ramp-up and power purchase agreement pipeline.
Adani Green Energy: Underperform on Valuation Concerns
In contrast, Bernstein maintained its 'Underperform' rating on Adani Green Energy and trimmed its target price to ₹980 per share from ₹1,000 earlier. The downgrade in estimates follows a revision of contracted tariffs with Adani Energy Solutions and updated capacity-addition assumptions through 2030.
Bernstein expects Adani Green's FY27 EBITDA estimates to fall by 10 per cent after these adjustments. The brokerage also revised its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) estimate marginally, from 8.8 per cent to 8.6 per cent, citing a shift in the company's debt-equity mix.
Group-Level Resilience: What Bernstein Observed
Bernstein noted that it has closely tracked the Adani Group through two major stress events — the Hindenburg Research short-seller episode and the subsequent US SEC-DoJ scrutiny. Across both episodes, the brokerage concluded that the Group's core operational capabilities remained unimpaired.
Notably, share pledges across Group companies have nearly disappeared, and leverage levels have declined — two metrics that had drawn investor concern at the height of the controversy. This comes amid a broader recalibration of institutional sentiment toward the conglomerate, with select foreign brokerages revisiting their ratings after a period of heightened caution.
Whether the Group's recovery narrative translates into sustained re-rating across all its listed entities will depend on continued execution, regulatory clarity, and global capital market conditions in the months ahead.
Point of View
Bearish on Green — is a more nuanced read than the all-or-nothing institutional stances that dominated post-Hindenburg coverage. The real signal here is the near-elimination of share pledges and declining leverage, which were the two metrics most cited by risk-averse funds as reasons to stay away. If those improvements hold, the re-rating case for Adani Ports in particular looks credible. But Adani Green's 10 per cent EBITDA cut is a reminder that the renewable energy arm carries valuation risk that the Group's operational recovery alone cannot fix — especially as contracted tariff revisions compress margins ahead of 2030 capacity targets.
NationPress
18 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has Bernstein raised its target price for Adani Ports?
Bernstein raised its Adani Ports target to ₹1,973 per share from ₹1,880 after upgrading FY27 volume growth estimates, with July data showing 12 per cent growth versus a prior 10 per cent estimate. The brokerage also lifted its EV/EBITDA multiple from 16 times to 16.5 times, citing strong pricing power and logistics expansion.
What is Bernstein's view on Adani Power?
Bernstein retained an 'Outperform' rating on Adani Power with a target price of ₹220 against a current price of ₹203.56. It projects EBITDA of ₹2,41,272 million for FY27 and ₹3,02,594 million for FY28.
Why does Adani Green Energy carry an 'Underperform' rating?
Bernstein kept Adani Green at 'Underperform' and cut its target to ₹980 from ₹1,000, citing demanding valuations, revised contracted tariffs with Adani Energy Solutions, and updated capacity-addition assumptions through 2030. FY27 EBITDA estimates were trimmed by 10 per cent following these revisions.
How has the Adani Group recovered from the short-seller and US regulatory challenges?
According to Bernstein, the Adani Group has emerged operationally stronger, with share pledges across Group companies having nearly disappeared and leverage levels declining. The brokerage, which tracked the Group through the Hindenburg short-seller episode and the US SEC-DoJ scrutiny, concluded that execution capabilities remained intact throughout.
What changed in Adani Green's WACC estimate?
Bernstein revised Adani Green's weighted average cost of capital from 8.8 per cent to 8.6 per cent, attributing the change to a shift in the company's debt-equity mix following updated financing assumptions.
