New Delhi recorded its lowest minimum temperature of October 2026 on Monday, 20 October, with the mercury at the Safdarjung Weather Station dipping to 17.1 degrees Celsius — 1.3 degrees below the seasonal average. The maximum temperature touched 31.7 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The readings signal the onset of autumn chill across the national capital.

Dussehra Forecast: Clear Skies Ahead

Residents heading out for Dussehra festivities can expect dry, clear weather, as the IMD has ruled out any rain for the occasion. Temperatures on the festival day are projected to hover around a maximum of 32 degrees Celsius and a minimum of 18 degrees Celsius. Clear skies are forecast to persist through October 23, after which partly cloudy conditions may develop on October 24 and 25.

Seasonal Shift Across the Country

The weather pattern across India is showing sharp regional contrasts. While Delhi-NCR and other northern states are experiencing cooler mornings and evenings — prompting many residents to switch off air conditioners and coolers — several southern states are at the other extreme. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka are witnessing heavy rainfall, with activity likely to intensify further due to a low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea. Hilly states have also reported rain and snowfall in recent days.

Delhi Air Quality Slides Toward 'Poor'

Even as temperatures cool, air pollution concerns are building. The Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) recorded Delhi's 24-hour average Air Quality Index (AQI) at 139 at 4 pm on Monday, placing the city in the moderate category. Of the 58 monitoring stations that reported data, two logged poor air quality levels and six recorded satisfactory readings. Pusa registered the highest AQI at 281, firmly in the poor range.

According to the Air Quality Early Warning System, Delhi's air quality is expected to remain moderate on Tuesday before deteriorating to the poor category on October 21 and 22, with forecasts for the following six days also indicating the likelihood of poor air quality. Unfavourable meteorological conditions — particularly when the ventilation index falls below 6,000 square metres per second and wind speed stays under 10 kilometres per hour — hinder pollutant dispersal and could worsen conditions further.

Stubble Burning Adds to Pollution Load

Stubble burning, a recurring seasonal trigger for Delhi's air quality crisis, has already begun in multiple states. Satellite data from the CREAMS laboratory of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute recorded 98 stubble-burning incidents across six states on 19 October. Uttar Pradesh reported the highest count at 27, followed by Punjab with 25 and Rajasthan with 24. Uttarakhand recorded 18 incidents and Madhya Pradesh reported four. Notably, neither Haryana nor Delhi recorded any incidents on that date.

Cumulatively, between 15 September and 19 October, a total of 1,171 stubble-burning incidents have been recorded. Madhya Pradesh leads with 370 incidents, followed closely by Punjab with 368. Rajasthan accounts for 197, Uttar Pradesh for 175, and Uttarakhand for 51. Haryana has logged nine incidents and Delhi one during the period.

With pollution levels forecast to worsen through the week and the stubble-burning season only beginning, authorities face a familiar seasonal challenge — and Delhi residents are likely to feel the effects well before November arrives.