Gujarat Set to Experience One of Its Hottest Years in 2025: Researchers
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Synopsis
As Gujarat faces rising temperatures, Ahmedabad recorded 42°C (108°F) recently, with predictions suggesting further increases. Scientists warn that 2025 could be one of the hottest years on record. Urbanization, deforestation, and geography contribute to this phenomenon, intensifying heat-related health risks and impacting agriculture.
Key Takeaways
- Ahmedabad recorded a high of 42°C recently.
- 2025 may become one of the hottest years due to rising temperatures.
- Urbanization has transformed cities into heat islands.
- Health risks from heat-related illnesses are increasing.
- Government measures have been implemented to mitigate impacts.
Ahmedabad, April 10 (NationPress) As Gujarat contends with escalating temperatures, the city of Ahmedabad hit a staggering high of 42°C (108°F) on Thursday, with forecasts indicating similar conditions for the days ahead.
In recent decades, Gujarat has seen a steady rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures. Scientists caution that 2025 could emerge as one of the hottest years recorded if the current warming trends persist.
The IMD’s report titled ‘State-Level Climate Change Trends in India’ reveals an annual increase of roughly 0.02°C in temperature metrics. Though this rise may seem insignificant yearly, the cumulative effect has led to more frequent and severe heatwaves.
The IMD anticipates that the intense heat will endure throughout April and May, with maximum temperatures fluctuating between 41°C to 45°C (106°F to 113°F) in various parts of Gujarat. A slight break is expected with the arrival of the monsoon in June, but temperatures are still projected to stay above normal during this phase.
Experts suggest that numerous factors are driving this warming trend. Rapid urbanization and industrialization have turned cities like Ahmedabad and Surat into heat islands, where concrete and asphalt absorb and retain heat, thus raising local temperatures.
Moreover, deforestation for agricultural expansion and urban growth has reduced the natural cooling effects of vegetation, further intensifying the heat. Gujarat’s geographical features also contribute to this issue; its extensive coastline along the Arabian Sea means that rising sea temperatures can impact local climate conditions.
“Urbanization in cities like Ahmedabad and Surat has replaced natural landscapes with heat-retaining concrete, asphalt, and steel. These materials retain heat well into the night, increasing not just daytime but also nighttime temperatures. It’s a classic case of the urban heat island effect,” remarked a climate scientist at the Gujarat Ecology Commission.
Additionally, Gujarat’s semi-arid terrain makes it more susceptible to extreme temperatures. Unlike forested areas, dry land heats more quickly and offers little natural cooling. This situation particularly endangers rural populations and agricultural workers, increasing their risk of heatstroke and dehydration.
In May 2010, Ahmedabad faced an extraordinary heatwave, with temperatures reaching unprecedented levels. Studies revealed that this period saw an estimated 43% increase in all-cause mortality, resulting in approximately 1,344 excess deaths compared to similar periods in 2009 and 2011.
More recently, in May 2024, Gujarat documented 187 cases of heatstroke, with Ahmedabad responsible for 69 of these cases. Notably, 152 of these instances statewide, including 66 in Ahmedabad, were reported in the last ten days of May when average temperatures hit 44.6°C.
In the realm of agriculture, escalating heat stress adversely affects crop yields, jeopardizing food security and the livelihoods of farmers.
From a health perspective, the incidence of heat-related illnesses has surged. For example, during the heatwave in 2010, Ahmedabad recorded 76 heatstroke fatalities in just one week.
Subsequent analyses indicated over 800 deaths during that timeframe, underscoring the severe repercussions of extreme heat on public health.
In light of the escalating heat, the Gujarat government has enacted several measures to alleviate its effects on citizens.
The Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) has formulated action plans for high-risk cities, concentrating on early warning systems and public awareness initiatives.
Moreover, the government has urged residents to take precautions against heat-related conditions, stressing the importance of staying hydrated and avoiding direct sun exposure during peak hours. The health impacts of rising temperatures are substantial.
Research has shown a significant rise in heat-related illnesses and mortality during extreme heat events. For instance, the 2010 heatwave in Ahmedabad was correlated with a 41.3% increase in all-cause mortality. In response, the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation has initiated heat wave preparation and warning systems aimed at safeguarding vulnerable populations.
Looking forward, projections suggest that Gujarat's average temperature could increase by up to 5°C by the century's end.
