How Does IMF’s GDP Upgrade Reinforce India’s Growth Narrative Under PM Modi?

Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- IMF upgrades India's GDP growth forecast to 6.6%
- India's growth is nearly double global rates
- Strong private consumption drives growth
- GST reforms positively impact consumer spending
- Emerging markets forecasted to moderate
New Delhi, Oct 15 (NationPress) Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed on Wednesday that the recent upgrade from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding India's GDP growth solidifies the country’s dynamic and resilient growth narrative under the guidance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi amidst global uncertainties.
During a press interaction at an event in New Delhi, Goyal stated that it is a significant achievement for India that under PM Modi's stewardship, the nation is advancing swiftly.
“The IMF’s updated projections indicate that India’s growth rate is expected to hit 6.6 percent, an increase from the prior estimate of 6.4 percent. I am optimistic that our GDP growth of 7.8 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal year (Q1 FY26) will persist, and under PM Modi's leadership, India will sustain its position as the fastest-growing economy,” the minister emphasized.
Furthermore, Goyal noted that the IMF anticipates global growth to be 3.2 percent this year, slightly down from 3.3 percent last year, and “India's growth will be nearly double that,” he remarked.
The IMF has revised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.6 percent for 2025-26, up from 6.4 percent earlier, despite the imposition of punitive tariffs by the US on Indian exports. The increase is attributed to a robust first quarter performance, which more than compensates for the uptick in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July, as stated in the IMF's World Economic Outlook.
In the April-June quarter of 2025-26, India achieved its highest growth rate in at least a year, with a GDP growth rate of 7.8 percent driven by strong private consumption. The IMF’s forecast aligns closely with the World Bank's recent adjustment of India’s growth outlook for FY26, raising it to 6.5 percent from 6.3 percent.
The IMF also foresees a cooling off of growth in emerging markets and developing economies, projecting a decline from 4.3 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4 percent in 2026.
Regarding the GST 2.0 reforms, Goyal noted that following the announcement of reduced GST rates, consumer spending has seen a significant increase, stating that PM Modi has provided a substantial gift to citizens this Diwali.
“We observed expectations of a spending slowdown in August, particularly after the announcement on August 15 regarding the reduction in GST rates,” he added.