Is India the Only Major Economy Surpassing Pre-Covid Growth Trends?

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Is India the Only Major Economy Surpassing Pre-Covid Growth Trends?

Synopsis

Harvard's Jason Furman declares India as the world's economic frontrunner post-Covid, highlighting its remarkable GDP growth. Discover how India's policies have fostered a sustainable recovery unlike any other major economy.

Key Takeaways

  • India's GDP growth outpaces major economies.
  • Projected growth of +5% by mid-2025.
  • Strong domestic policies foster resilience.
  • Digital infrastructure and youthful demographics are key contributors.
  • India is aiming for a $5 trillion GDP by 2027.

New Delhi, Nov 22 (NationPress) In a remarkable showcase of economic resilience, Harvard Professor Jason Furman has identified India as the global leader in real GDP growth since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, outpacing even economic giants like the US and China.

A striking graph shared by Furman illustrates real GDP as a percentage of pre-pandemic trajectories from 2019 through Q3 of 2025; while numerous major economies continue to struggle with the lasting impacts of the 2020 recession, India's growth trajectory consistently rises, surpassing the zero baseline and aiming for +5 percent by mid-2025.

The chart referenced by Furman tracks five key economies: the United States (blue), Euro Area (green), China (gray), Russia (orange), and India (green -- easily recognized for its upward growth).

In 2020, all nations experienced a downturn, with the Euro Area dropping to -25 percent, the US to -5 percent, and China to -10 percent.

However, recovery paths diverged significantly afterward.

The US rebounded quickly, stabilizing around +2 percent by 2025, supported by substantial fiscal measures such as the American Rescue Plan, which Furman credits for minimizing 'scarring' compared to weaker responses elsewhere.

Nevertheless, India's growth is without parallel.

From a low of -5 percent in 2020, India's GDP relative to trend soared past pre-Covid levels by 2022, hitting +3 percent in 2024 and projected to achieve +5 percent in Q3 2025.

This positions India as the sole economy not only recovering but significantly exceeding its long-term growth trajectory, a success Furman attributes to structural strengths rather than temporary boosts.

Furman highlighted, 'India's policies have encouraged domestic consumption and investment in the face of global challenges,' contrasting it with Europe's energy crises and China's real estate troubles.

For instance, China's gray line stabilizes at -5 percent by 2025, hindered by zero-Covid lockdowns and real estate difficulties.

Russia's orange curve remains flat near -8 percent, impacted by post-Ukraine invasion sanctions.

The Euro Area, still at -3 percent, is grappling with inflation and geopolitical consequences.

Even the US, though strong, is heavily reliant on AI-driven data center investments, which account for 92 percent of first-half 2025 growth, according to Furman's estimates, raising concerns about sustainability.

Economists regard India's acceleration as a model for emerging markets.

Strong digital infrastructure, a youthful demographic dividend, and reforms like production-linked incentives have driven annual growth of 7-8 percent, according to IMF estimates.

Record highs in electronics and pharmaceuticals exports, along with resilient IT outsourcing services, have withstood global slowdowns. Moreover, the prudent fiscal policies of the Indian government have kept fiscal deficits below 6 percent of GDP, enabling targeted spending on infrastructure and social safety nets.

Furman's graph signifies a crucial shift; while advanced economies flirt with stagnation, India aims for a $5 trillion GDP by 2027.

Furman noted amid US fiscal policy discussions, 'Most countries saw quick rebounds, but few truly outgrew the trauma. India leads that group.' As 2025 approaches, the chart's implication is evident -- resilience is not just about recovery; it's about reshaping the future.

Point of View

It's essential to emphasize that India’s remarkable economic resurgence post-pandemic is not just a statistical anomaly but a testament to strategic policy initiatives. The resilience showcased by India amid global challenges highlights its potential to inspire emerging markets worldwide. This growth narrative aligns closely with our nation's future prospects.
NationPress
22/11/2025

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the recent analysis by Harvard reveal about India's economy?
The analysis indicates that India is the only major economy surpassing pre-Covid growth trends, with projections showing a GDP increase of +5% by mid-2025.
How does India’s GDP growth compare to other economies?
India's GDP growth trajectory is notably higher than that of major economies like the US and China, which are still recovering from the pandemic's impacts.
What factors are contributing to India's economic success?
Key factors include strong domestic consumption, investment policies, digital infrastructure, and a youthful demographic.
What does the future hold for India's economy?
India aims to achieve a $5 trillion GDP by 2027, positioning itself as a leader in the global economic landscape.
How does this analysis impact emerging markets?
India's success serves as a blueprint for emerging markets, showcasing how strategic policies can drive growth even amid global challenges.
Nation Press