Is India Ready for an Above-Normal Monsoon?
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Synopsis
The IMD's latest forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon reveals that most parts of India can expect above-normal rainfall from June to September, paving the way for a promising agricultural season. However, vigilance is necessary to address potential risks associated with heavy rains.
Key Takeaways
- Above-normal rainfall expected for most of India.
- The forecast predicts 106% of LPA rainfall.
- Central and South Peninsular India likely to benefit the most.
- Some regions face below-normal rainfall, particularly in the Northeast.
- Authorities must prepare for potential challenges like flooding.
New Delhi, May 27 (NationPress) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has published its latest predictions for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, delivering promising news for the nation. The report released on Tuesday indicates that the upcoming monsoon season, spanning from June to September, is anticipated to experience above-normal rainfall in most regions of India.
The expected all-India rainfall is projected to be 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 percent. This forecast enhances optimism for a fruitful agricultural season and better water availability, while also necessitating preparedness for potential weather-related challenges.
Importantly, the monsoon outlook is particularly favorable for Central and South Peninsular India, areas vital for agricultural yield, where above-normal rainfall is highly likely.
Meanwhile, Northwest India is forecasted to receive normal rainfall.
In contrast, Northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall, which could raise concerns for the region's ecosystems and agriculture.
The Monsoon Core Zone, encompassing most of India's rainfed farming regions, is also expected to witness above-normal rainfall, setting a solid groundwork for a successful Kharif crop season.
June 2025, marking the onset of the monsoon, is anticipated to see above-normal rainfall countrywide.
Most areas in India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with exceptions in certain southern peninsular parts and regions of Northwest and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is expected. These early rains are crucial for sowing operations and replenishing groundwater.
Temperature forecasts for June offer a mixed outlook. Maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal across much of the country, although some parts of Northwest and Northeast India might experience above-normal maximum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most regions, except for parts of Central India and the adjacent southern Peninsula, which may see normal to below-normal minimums.
Encouragingly, the number of heatwave days is projected to be below normal in many areas of Northwest, Central, and East India, mitigating the risk of extreme heat events in early summer.
Climatic factors influencing this forecast include neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. However, models indicate a weak negative IOD may develop during the monsoon season. These conditions, while not extreme, will be closely monitored as they can subtly impact monsoon behavior.
A detailed analysis of rainfall predictions by meteorological subdivisions shows that 34 out of 36 subdivisions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This includes key agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.
Only Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, while some northeastern and hilly areas may see near-normal rainfall.
This optimistic monsoon forecast presents substantial potential benefits. It is expected to enhance crop yields, alleviate pressure on irrigation systems, and bolster rural livelihoods.
However, authorities and communities are advised to stay vigilant regarding possible challenges such as flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in susceptible regions. Public health systems may also need to prepare for waterborne diseases and sanitation issues, especially in densely populated areas.
The IMD will continue to issue updated extended range forecasts and short to medium-range forecasts via its official website. These resources are vital for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management authorities to plan and respond effectively throughout the monsoon season.
With prudent planning and timely action, the 2025 monsoon could emerge as a significant catalyst for agricultural growth and water security, while the country remains vigilant regarding the associated risks.
Point of View
It’s crucial to recognize the significance of the IMD's forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon. While the prospect of above-normal rainfall instills hope for agricultural growth and water security, we must remain vigilant about the potential hazards associated with it. It's a time for communities to prepare and adapt to ensure resilience in the face of nature's unpredictability.
NationPress
09/06/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected rainfall for the 2025 monsoon in India?
The India Meteorological Department forecasts that the all-India rainfall for the 2025 monsoon is likely to be 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Which regions in India will benefit the most from the monsoon?
Central and South Peninsular India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, crucial for agricultural productivity.
Are there any regions expected to have below-normal rainfall?
Yes, Northeast India, specifically Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya, may experience below-normal rainfall.
What are the implications of the monsoon forecast?
The optimistic forecast is expected to enhance crop output, alleviate pressure on irrigation systems, and support rural livelihoods, but communities must remain alert to potential flooding and waterborne diseases.
How can farmers and policymakers prepare for the monsoon?
Farmers and policymakers can utilize the IMD's forecasts available on their official website to plan and respond effectively throughout the monsoon season.
