Has India Overtaken Japan as the World's 4th Largest Economy and is Set to Surpass Germany?

New Delhi, May 25 (NationPress) India has officially outpaced Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, and it is on track to potentially dethrone Germany from the third position within the next 2.5 to 3 years, according to NITI Aayog's Chief Executive Officer (CEO), B.V.R. Subrahmanyam.

“As I speak, we are the fourth largest economy, with a GDP of USD 4 trillion. This information is sourced from the IMF, and I can confirm that India has now surpassed Japan,” Subrahmanyam stated during a press conference held at the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting.

“Only the United States, China, and Germany are larger economies than us. If we continue our current trajectory, we expect to become the third largest economy in about 2 to 3 years,” Subrahmanyam highlighted.

The IMF had reported earlier this month in its World Economic Outlook that India is set to solidify its position as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2025, with a nominal GDP projected to rise to $4,187.017 billion, surpassing Japan’s GDP of $4,186.431 billion.

Additionally, the report indicates that India remains the fastest-growing major economy globally, being the only nation anticipated to achieve over 6 percent growth over the next two years.

By 2028, India’s GDP is estimated to reach $5,584.476 billion, allowing it to overtake Germany to become the third-largest economy.

The IMF forecasts a stagnant growth rate for Germany, predicting zero growth in 2025 and 0.9 percent in 2026, citing the adverse effects of the ongoing global trade war. Germany’s GDP is projected to be $5,251.928 billion by 2028.

On the other hand, Japan is also expected to face challenges due to the global trade war, experiencing a sluggish growth rate of 0.6 percent for both 2025 and 2026.

The GDP of the US, the largest economy in the world, is estimated at $30,507.217 billion for 2025, while China, the second-largest, is projected at $19,231.705 billion.

As per the IMF, the US, which has instigated tariff disputes worldwide, is expected to see its GDP growth decelerate to 1.8 percent this year, further declining to 1.7 percent in 2026.

Similarly, the Euro Area is anticipated to slow down to a mere 0.8 percent growth in 2025, with a modest recovery to 1.2 percent in 2026. France is expected to achieve growth rates of 0.6 percent and 1 percent for the two-year period.

Among European nations, Spain is projected to outperform others in 2025 with a 2.5 percent growth rate, though this is expected to taper to 1.8 percent in 2026. The UK is forecasted to record growth rates of 1.1 and 1.4 percent, respectively, for the two years.