India's economy is projected to expand by 7 per cent in fiscal year 2026-27, moderating from a stronger-than-expected 7.8 per cent growth recorded in FY26, according to an S&P Global-Crisil report released on Wednesday, 30 September 2026. The report, titled India Forward: Reimagining Growth, attributes India's resilience to the strength of domestic economic drivers even as the country navigates high US tariffs and an uncertain global environment.

Key Findings of the Report

The report notes that India's stronger-than-expected FY26 performance underscores the robustness of domestic demand and the economy's capacity to weather external shocks. However, it cautions that sustaining this trajectory will require continued investment momentum and the strengthening of key economic institutions as the country transitions into its next phase of development.

Yann Le Pallec, President of S&P Global Ratings and Chairman of the Board for Crisil, said India has a significant opportunity to build on its economic resilience through continued infrastructure development, greater competitive federalism, deeper capital markets, and stronger financial intermediation.

Energy Security: A Growing Concern

The report flags energy security as a critical vulnerability, particularly following supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Dave Ernsberger, President of S&P Global Energy, India has faced a 20 per cent reduction in crude oil supplies, a 12 per cent decline in LPG availability, and a 16 per cent drop in LNG flows as a direct result of these continuing disruptions.

More than half of India's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the country one of the most exposed globally to any disruption in the strategic waterway. The report calls for greater diversification of supply sources and the creation of strategic reserves for crude oil, refined products, and natural gas to shore up long-term energy security.

Geopolitical Positioning and Foreign Policy

On the geopolitical front, the study suggests India is increasingly positioning itself as a leading power rather than a balancing power in global affairs. Its evolving foreign policy strategy is likely to involve selective cooperation with major powers while deepening engagement with emerging economies — a shift that could carry significant implications for trade alliances and multilateral forums.

The Digital Rupee's Emerging Role

The report also points to the growing potential of the digital rupee, describing the central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a candidate to emerge as the fourth layer of India's digital public infrastructure. It argues that the digital rupee could enable programmable money and help keep cross-border trade and remittances anchored in sovereign currency within an increasingly tokenised global economy.

As global headwinds persist, the S&P Global-Crisil assessment suggests India's near-term growth story remains intact — but the country's ability to convert macroeconomic resilience into durable, long-cycle momentum will be the defining test of the years ahead.