New Delhi, Jan 29 (NationPress) The Economic Survey anticipates that India’s real GDP growth for the fiscal year 2026-2027 will fall within a range of 6.8 to 7.2 percent, reflecting a stable growth outlook amidst global uncertainties.

The survey indicates that for India, global conditions lead to external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic challenges. Despite these uncertainties, the domestic economy remains solid. Inflation has decreased to historically low levels, although some increase is expected in the future.

Household, corporate, and banking balance sheets are in a healthier state, and public investment continues to drive economic activity. Consumption demand is robust, with improving intentions for private investment. These factors enhance resilience against external shocks and sustain growth momentum. The upcoming rebasing of the CPI series next year will influence inflation assessment and necessitate careful interpretation of price dynamics, according to the economic survey.

However, slower growth rates among key trading partners, trade disruptions from tariffs, and fluctuations in capital flows could intermittently impact exports and investor confidence. Nonetheless, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are projected to wrap up within the year, potentially alleviating some external uncertainties. While these risks are manageable, they underscore the need for maintaining adequate buffers and policy credibility, as noted in the survey.

Crucially, the cumulative effect of India’s recent policy reforms seems to have enhanced the economy’s medium-term growth potential to around 7 percent. With domestic factors taking precedence and macroeconomic stability well established, the balance of risks surrounding growth appears to be relatively even.

The global economic outlook remains bleak over the medium term, dominated by downside risks.

Globally, growth is expected to be moderate, leading to generally stable commodity price trends.

Inflation rates across various economies have been declining, making it likely that monetary policies will become more accommodating to support growth. Still, certain critical risks remain. Should the AI boom fail to produce the expected productivity improvements, it could result in a correction of overly optimistic asset valuations, potentially leading to wider financial contagion.

Additionally, prolonged trade conflicts could hinder investment and further diminish the global growth outlook. Collectively, these factors indicate that downside risks to global growth are significant, although a fragile stability exists for the moment, the survey concluded.