Can the NDA Win 148 Seats in Bihar According to Polstrat Exit Poll?
Synopsis
According to the latest Polstrat exit poll, the NDA is poised to secure a significant win in the Bihar assembly elections 2025. With impressive seat projections and a notable vote share, the political landscape is heating up, showcasing a thrilling race between major alliances.
Key Takeaways
The NDA is projected to secure 133 to 148 seats.
The Mahagathbandhan is estimated at 87 to 102 seats.
68 to 72 seats are likely for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Polling methodology includes demographic and geographic weighting.
Final results could significantly differ based on voter turnout.
New Delhi/Patna, Nov 11 (NationPress) The National Democratic Alliance shows a prominent advantage in the Bihar assembly elections 2025, as indicated by the People's Insight and Polstrat exit poll published on Tuesday.
Surveying a total of 1,349,765 participants through advanced AI-driven simulation models and interactive voice response tele-calling, the findings suggest that the NDA is set to secure between 133 to 148 seats with a 44.71 percent vote share, placing them well ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, which is projected to obtain 87 to 102 seats with 40.34 percent votes.
Within the NDA coalition, the Bharatiya Janata Party is anticipated to dominate with 68 to 72 seats, while the Janata Dal (United) is expected to garner 55 to 60 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party is likely to contribute 9 to 12 seats, and the smaller allies, Hindustani Awam Morcha and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, may secure 1 to 2 and 0 to 2 seats, respectively.
On the opposing front, the Rashtriya Janata Dal continues to be the leading force in the Mahagathbandhan, with projections of capturing 65 to 72 seats. The Indian National Congress is estimated to achieve 9 to 13 seats, alongside the left parties collectively anticipated to secure 11 to 14 seats.
The Vikassheel Insaan Party might contribute 2 to 3 seats, while the India Inclusion Party is not expected to gain any seats.
Minor parties are showing minimal impact, with Jan Suraaj set to win 0 to 2 seats despite a notable 7.93 percent vote share.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is projected to obtain 2 to 3 seats with 1.74 percent votes, while the Jan Jan Dal might gain 0 to 1 seat on a small 0.25 percent.
Independent candidates could secure 1 to 2 seats with 2.16 percent support, and about 2.87 percent of voters remain undecided or aligned with other minor groups.
The survey, featuring a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, highlights a closely contested election where the NDA’s lead, while significant, does not reach a two-thirds majority.
The narrow vote share gap of slightly over four percentage points between the two primary alliances indicates that regional, caste, and turnout dynamics on the counting day could still shift the results.
The methodology employed included statistical weighting for demographics, geography, and response patterns to ensure representativeness across Bihar’s 243 constituencies.
The ultimate outcomes will validate the accuracy of these projections.
Point of View
It’s crucial to recognize the significance of these projections. While the NDA leads, the narrow margin suggests that the final results could hinge on voter turnout and regional dynamics. The political climate in Bihar remains fluid, and this race will be one to watch closely.
NationPress
2 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected seat count for NDA?
The NDA is projected to secure between 133 to 148 seats in the Bihar assembly elections 2025 according to the Polstrat exit poll.
How many seats is Mahagathbandhan expected to win?
The Mahagathbandhan is estimated to win between 87 to 102 seats.
Who leads the NDA in seat projections?
The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to lead with projections of 68 to 72 seats.
What is the margin of error for the poll?
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
Are there undecided voters?
Yes, approximately 2.87 percent of voters remain undecided or aligned with other minor parties.
